Escalating policy and tariff pressures

The biopharmaceutical industry is currently grappling with significant headwinds, primarily driven by an evolving and unpredictable tariff landscape. This uncertainty has already impacted market activity, with only two initial public offerings in Q2 compared to five in Q1.

Regulatory shifts and concerns of an imminent trade war caused a nearly nine percent drop in the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF nearly nine percent in the first week of April, following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 10 percent global tariff on nearly all goods entering the US.

Subsequent discussions have led to a dynamic and often unpredictable landscape. Throughout May and June, negotiations saw a temporary de-escalation, with some of the more severe tariffs being paused or substantially reduced for many goods until mid-August; however, a cumulative tariff of up to 245 percent on certain Chinese active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) has been in effect since April, significantly impacting the pharmaceutical supply chain.

Lingering uncertainties have also persisted; as of mid-July, while direct negotiations are ongoing, the US has signaled an intent to potentially increase the baseline reciprocal tariff rate to 15-20 percent and has threatened a hike of 35 percent on goods currently subject to the 25 percent fentanyl tariff, effective August 1.

Further intensifying the pressure, Trump has recently proposed a dramatic 200 percent tariff on imported finished pharmaceutical products, as well as 30 percent tariffs on the EU and Mexico, slated to begin on August 1.

For pharmaceuticals, the higher import costs for APIs and finished drugs are forcing companies to continuously re-evaluate their supply chains and brace for potential price increases.

Tariffs on steel and aluminium could also increase costs for stainless-steel bioprocessing equipment, lab equipment and medical devices.

Picton Mahoney’s 2025 Mid-Year Report discusses the risks associated with tariffs, including increased recession odds, stagflation risks and the possibility of renewed protectionist policies creating ripple effects across global equity markets. The authors add that building pricing pressures in the US from new tariffs and a weaker US dollar could exacerbate negative economic trends.

The report also highlights that policy uncertainty is bad for corporate planning and could lead to a pause in spending.

Evaluate Pharma’s World Preview 2025 report, released in June, states that mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity in the biopharmaceutical industry is “off the pace so far in 2025”, with the slowdown attributed to uncertainties surrounding US tariffs and drug pricing policy. An unnamed former Big Pharma CEO is quoted as saying, “I’d be holding off dealmaking for 3-6 months until this [tariff framework] plays out”.

The report also indicates that the deals that are happening are “heavily risk-mitigated” and often involve late-stage or marketed assets or, if programs have not yet been finalized, include contingent payments.

M&A trends and pipeline expansion

Despite a slowdown in the market, pharma and biotech companies continued to pursue M&As in the second quarter, seeking to strengthen their product pipelines with a focus on bolt-on acquisitions.

Notably, there was a trend of European pharmaceutical giants acquiring US-based biotechnology firms, such as GSK’s (NYSE:GSK) acquisition of Boston Pharmaceuticals’ subsidiary, BP Asset IX, to gain access to its live disease drug, efinofermin, in a deal valued at up to US$2 billion.

Significant investments were also directed toward immunology, rare diseases and neurodegenerative disorders, underscoring a broader trend in the industry toward targeted pipeline expansion and addressing unmet medical needs across a range of complex conditions.

Sanofi’s (NASDAQ:SNY) US$9.5 billion acquisition of Blueprint Medicines garnered considerable attention due to the startup’s very specific and strong focus within the rare disease space. Many industry observers expect the deal will help grow Sanofi’s portfolio of rare disease treatments.

The acquisitions were diverse in their therapeutic focus, but Merck’s (NYSE:MRK) acquisition of SpringWorks Therapeutics, which specializes in rare and genetically defined cancers, highlighted the ongoing dominance of oncology.

Healthcare policy changes under Trump

AI-driven solutions are continuing to have an impact on life science industries. Several panels at Web Summit Vancouver highlighted how investors are increasingly focused on AI’s potential for significant productivity gains in life sciences, particularly in drug development and synthetic biology, despite challenges in regulation and data integration.

Wesley Chan of FPV Ventures highlighted life sciences as a sector where AI offers significant productivity gains, citing Strand Therapeutics’ AI-developed mRNA cancer therapy as an example of a generational investment opportunity available through the convergence of biology and AI.

Tom Beigala, founding partner at Bison Ventures, said he believes AI and next-generation computational technologies are driving innovation across the entire healthcare system, from making drug discovery easier and more cost-effective to optimizing data utilization and significantly increasing labor and clinical productivity.

Eric Hoskins, partner at Maverix Private Equity, identified AI-guided personalized medicine as one of the “fast movers” poised to bring an abrupt and immediate change to healthcare.

Reflecting this accelerating integration of AI into clinical practice and patient care, Sanofi and Regeneron (NASDAQ:REGN) partnered with Viz.ai, an AI healthcare firm, in May to integrate AI into COPD management.

Looking ahead

As the biotech and pharma sectors head into the third quarter, the outlook remains clouded by policy uncertainty, rising input costs and shifting global trade dynamics. Yet opportunities remain for firms that can navigate the complexity. Large-cap leaders like Novartis (NYSE:NVS), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) and Sanofi have demonstrated that strong fundamentals and strategic pipeline development can drive outperformance, even in turbulent markets.

As far as policy goes, the Trump administration’s inclusion of enhanced orphan drug incentives under the “Big Beautiful Bill” could act as a catalyst for rare disease innovation.

AI remains a transformative force across the industry. As generative models begin to inform pipeline design and clinical trial optimization, companies with robust data strategies and smart manufacturing capabilities are expected to gain a competitive advantage.

“For us, we really like applications of AI where you’ve got proprietary data, in many cases, probably off the shelf for lightly modified AI models, and then going after super high value applications,” said Beigala, a founding partner of Bison Ventures, which has a portfolio spanning AI-enhanced drug discovery, advanced life science tools for pre-clinical testing and synthetic biology applications.

Similarly, investment in domestic CDMO infrastructure and real-time manufacturing analytics will be crucial for supply chain resilience in an increasingly protectionist trade environment.

Looking ahead, commercial-stage differentiation will become more critical than ever. Investors will be watching closely for companies that can combine clinical results, cost control and regulatory readiness to stand out in a cautious market.

“That’s what we look for, these application models where the team is so thoughtful and smart and so uniquely positioned to understand and have access to data that nobody else has,” Chan explained.

Biopharma’s next phase will be defined by measurable progress. In Q3, adaptability, resilience and clear-eyed execution will matter more than ever.

What moved the copper price?

Copper started the quarter in freefall.

After reaching an all-time high of US$5.22 per pound on the COMEX on March 26, the price plummeted to US$4.06 on April 8. Although it wouldn’t stay there long, by April 11, it had climbed back above US$4.50 and continued to US$4.88 on April 22.

Copper price chart, April 01 to July 23, 2025

via TradingEconomics

From the end of April, all of May and much of June, the copper price was volatile but range-bound, trading between US$4.50 and US$4.80.

However, the end of June saw a surge in momentum in the market, as the price began to climb, and on June 30, it reached US$4.97 per pound.

Since then, the price has soared. Setting a new all-time high of US$5.65 per pound on July 10.

Supply and demand by the numbers

Over the past few years, a growing imbalance has developed in the copper market, as demand growth has outpaced the expansion of primary and secondary supply lines.

According to a June 24 press release, data from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) showed a 3.2 percent growth in refined production, with a combined gain of 4.8 percent from China and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the two largest producers globally. Further increases came from Asia, where output was 3.5 percent higher.

The increased levels were offset by Chile, where smelter output fell 9.5 percent, due to smelter maintenance shutdowns.

However, the refined production outpaced mining production, which rose just 2 percent during the period. Peru accounted for a 5 percent year-over-year growth due to increased output at MMG’s (OTC Pink:MMLTF) Las Bambas, Anglo American (LSE:AAL,OTC Pink:AAUKF,OTC:NGLOY) and Mitsubishi’s (OTC Pink:MIMTF) Quellaveco and Chinalco Mining’s (OTC Pink:ALMMF) Toromocho mines.

Likewise, production in DRC surged by 8 percent, attributable to the expansion of the Ivanhoe Mines (TSX:IVN,OTC:IVPAF) and Zijin Mining’s (OTC Pink:ZIJMF,HKEX:2899,SHA:601899) joint venture Kamoa-Kakula mine.

Demand continued to grow at a higher rate than refined output during the first quarter of 2025, with the ICSG suggesting a 3.3 percent increase in copper usage.

The largest segment came from Chinese markets, which required 6 percent more copper than in 2024, but this demand occurred during an 11 percent decline in net refined imports into the country. China is the world’s largest consumer of copper, accounting for approximately 58 percent of global demand.

Outside of China, demand was essentially flat, with high demand from Asian, Middle Eastern and North African countries being offset by weak demand in Europe and North America.

Overall, the data provided by the ICSG indicated a 233,000 metric ton surplus of refined copper through the first four months of 2025, a slight decrease from the 236,000 metric tons during the same period in 2024.

Outside the numbers

“Yes, we believe we have moved into a supply deficit in 2025 and that the market is currently in deficit. Uncertainties in the financial markets (trade, growth and inflation) have had a negative impact on copper demand, but this has been offset as copper is becoming less tied to global economic growth and more tied to industries that provide structural growth to the market,” he said.

White went on to explain that AI data centers, emerging economies and the energy transition are all putting increased stress on copper supply.

Furthermore, the supply outlook was not expected to keep pace with demand this year. Q1 2025 mined copper production has indicated low production, and the copper supply outlook for this year has already worsened with the first major disruption of the year,” he added.

The shutdown referred to by White was at the Ivanhoe-Zijin Kakula-Kamoa mine in the DRC.

Ivanhoe reported a temporary interruption of underground mining at the Kakula mine on May 2. The company cited seismic activity and initiated a partial shutdown of operations at phase 1 and 2 concentrators, utilizing surface stockpiles.

Operations at the mine were suspended until June 11, when the company announced it had initiated a restart. It also stated that it was slashing production guidance by 28 percent due to the impact, with the revised number falling between 370,000 and 420,000 metric tons, down from the previous range of 520,000 to 580,000 set in January.

The difference in guidance accounts for more than half of the projected surplus in the ICSG report, demonstrating just how tight the copper market has become.

The Trump effect

Volatility has been present since the start of the year, with much of it attributed to uncertainty stemming from an ever-shifting US trade policy under President Donald Trump.

Commodity prices plummeted at the start of the second quarter, with copper losing 22 percent between its quarterly high of US$5.22 on March 26 and April 8, when it fell to US$4.06.

The drop came alongside the fallout from the “Liberation Day” tariffs Trump announced on April 2, which applied a 10 percent baseline tariff to imports into the United States from all but a handful of countries. It also threatened the imposition of more significant retaliatory tariffs to take effect on April 9.

Additionally, the United States initiated a tit-for-tat tariff war with China in early April, starting with a 34 percent tariff on Chinese imports, which quickly rose to 145 percent on Chinese imports and 125 percent on US exports to China.

The effect of the tariffs caused significant declines in major US indices, with the Dow losing 9.5 percent, the S&P 500 shedding 10 percent, and the Nasdaq losing 11 percent in two days. More than $6 trillion was wiped from the markets over two days, the most significant such loss in history.

More importantly, the uncertainty seeped into the US bond markets, causing yields on the 10-year Treasury to rise sharply to 4.49 percent as investors began to dump US bonds. The rising rates came as China and Japan both sold holdings back into the market in an attempt to counter Trump’s trade plans.

The combined effect led analysts to suggest that a recession was imminent, prompting broad sell-offs in the commodity markets as traders worked to dispose of stockpiles of high-value inventories.

Copper is susceptible to recessions due to its wide range of applications, which are heavily dependent on consumer spending.

Ultimately, a sliding stock market and spiking bond yields prompted Trump to announce a 90-day pause on the retaliatory tariffs, stating that it would allow countries to come to the table and negotiate a deal with the United States.

Although the rout of the copper market was short-lived, it demonstrated the push-pull that tariffs and trade policy can have on copper prices.

In February, Trump signed an executive order which invoked section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act to initiate an investigation into the impact of copper imports on all forms of national security.

In the order, Trump noted that while the US has ample copper reserves, its smelting and refining capacity has declined. China has become the world’s leading supplier of refined copper, commanding a 50 percent market share.

“The supply and demand imbalance has recently been catalyzed with the US trade actions, where copper stocks have moved into the US on speculation that the Section 232 investigation into copper may result in a copper tariff,” White said.

He explained that the global inventory system has become fragmented. With the supply deficit, it has become increasingly difficult to source physical copper, resulting in drastically lower inventories on the London Metal Exchange (LME) and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE).

The administration reached a decision early in the third quarter, and on July 8, Donald Trump announced a 50 percent tariff on all copper entering the United States.

The move caused prices on the COMEX to spike to record highs, triggering more panic buying among traders as they raced to transfer above-ground copper stocks into US-based facilities to avoid the additional tariff costs.

While ICSG hasn’t published numbers since May, it was already demonstrating then that significant stockpiles were being moved between international warehouses and the US. It reported that stocks at the LME had declined 122,900 metric tons from the start of the year, while stocks at the COMEX and SHFE had both posted gains of 80,970 metric tons and 31,619 metric tons, respectively.

“Copper is globally fungible. It’s like oil. The sanctions don’t work on Russian oil or Iranian oil, because it just flows around. Copper can do that, too. So it’s incorrect to think that a copper tariff, therefore, copper is up, and all copper stocks have to go up. If you’re a copper miner in Chile selling to China, then the US tariff has no direct bearing on your business whatsoever,” he said.

Tigre also explained that the US imports 50 percent of its copper needs, and there is no way that tariffs are going to fix that overnight.

“The mines just aren’t there. The help he’s (Trump) provided with permitting is highly relevant, and it has already helped; that’s okay. You get the permits, and then you have to build the mine, right? So it’ll be years before the incentives create more US production. Meanwhile, it’s Dr. Copper. It goes in everything, so consumers, manufacturers, everybody’s got this added cost,” he said.

Where does copper go next?

Beyond the tariffs, the fundamentals remain, as Tigre pointed out, the world is dependent on copper and demand for the red metal has been increasing faster than supply.

“There aren’t enough copper projects on the pipeline, not ones big enough to matter. So I’m extremely bullish on copper. All those reasons to be bullish on copper are still on the table in front of us, and when I first made the call, copper was around four bucks or something, and now, if we’re going there at five, almost six, and all that tailwind is stil to come and push it higher,” Tigre said.

While he remained positive on copper’s long-term outlook, he declined to say where the price would end up at the end of the year.

Even though copper may be one of the safer commodity bets owing to its staggering demand and low supply, investors should keep in mind the broad economic landscape when entering into a position with a metal that can change quickly with consumer spending.

1. Sociedad Química y Minera (NYSE:SQM)

Year-to-date gain: 10.43 percent
Market cap: US$10.82 billion
Share price: US$40.64

SQM is a major global lithium producer, with operations centered in Chile’s Salar de Atacama. The company extracts lithium from brine and produces lithium carbonate and hydroxide for use in batteries.

SQM is expanding production and holds interests in projects in Australia and China.

Shares of SQM reached a year-to-date high of US$45.61 on March 17, 2025. The spike occurred a few weeks after the company released its 2024 earnings report, which highlighted record sales volumes in the lithium and iodine segments. However, low lithium prices weighed on revenue from the segment, and the company’s reported net profit was pulled down significantly due to a large accounting adjustment related to income tax.

In late April, Chile’s competition watchdog approved the partnership agreement between SQM and state-owned copper giant Codelco aimed at boosting output at the Atacama salt flat. The deal, first announced in 2024, reached another milestone when it secured approval for an additional lithium quota from Chile’s nuclear energy regulator CChEN.

Weak lithium prices continued to weigh on profits, with the company reporting a 4 percent year-over-year decrease in total revenues for Q1 2025.

2. Lithium Americas (NYSE:LAC)

Year-to-date gain: 9.67 percent
Market cap: US$719.1 million
Share price: US$3.29

Lithium Americas is developing its flagship Thacker Pass project in Northern Nevada, US. The project is a joint venture between Lithium Americas at 62 percent and General Motors (NYSE:GM) at 38 percent.

According to the firm, Thacker Pass is the “largest known measured lithium resource and reserve in the world.”

Early in the year, Lithium Americas saw its share rally to a year-to-date high of US$3.49 on January 16, coinciding with a brief rally in lithium carbonate prices.

In March, Lithium Americas secured US$250 million from Orion Resource Partners to advance Phase 1 construction of Thacker Pass. The funding is expected to fully cover development costs through the construction phase. On April 1, the joint venture partners made a final investment decision for the project, with completion targeted for late 2027.

Other notable announcements this year included a new at-the-market equity program, allowing the company to sell up to US$100 million in common shares.

3. Lithium Argentina (NYSE:LAR)

Year-to-date gain: 8.46 percent
Market cap: US$467.28 million
Share price: US$2.90

Lithium Argentina produces lithium carbonate from its Caucharí-Olaroz brine project in Argentina, developed with Ganfeng Lithium (OTC Pink:GNENF,HKEX:1772).

The company is also advancing additional regional lithium assets to support EV and battery demand.

Previously named Lithium Americas (Argentina), the company was spun out from Lithium Americas in October 2023.

While shares of Lithium Argentina spiked in early January to a year-to-date high of US$3.10, the share price has been trending higher since June 19 to its current US$2.90 value.

Notable news from the company this year includes its name and ticker change and corporate migration to Switzerland in late January and the release of the full-year 2024 results in March.

In mid-April, Lithium Argentina executed a letter of intent with Ganfeng Lithium to jointly advance development across the Pozuelos-Pastos Grandes basins in Argentina. The plan includes a project fully owned by Ganfeng as well as two jointly held assets majority-owned by Lithium Argentina.

The company released its Q1 results on May 15, reporting a 15 percent quarter-over-quarter production reduction, which it attributed to planned shutdowns aimed at increasing recoveries and reducing costs.

Overall, the production guidance for 2025 is forecasted at 30,000 to 35,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate, reflecting higher expected production volumes in the second half of the year.