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Trading is all about the odds. Trade when the odds are in your favor. Exercise patience and stand aside when the odds are NOT in your favor. Stocks are in a bear market with the vast majority of names (76%) trading below their 200-day SMAs. Clearly, the odds are NOT in our favor for equities and equity ETFs. Traders need to look elsewhere. Today’s report will highlight some non-equity leaders and analyze Bitcoin as it sets up.

TrendInvestorPro works with a ChartList that has 72 ETFs covering all sectors, the key industry groups, commodities, bonds and crypto. Note that this curated ChartList is available to TrendInvestorPro subscribers. The image below is sorted by the percentage above the 200-day SMA (blue shading) to show the top 20 performers. This simple performance overview reveals a lot. We are NOT in a bull market and alternative assets are attracting attention (gold, Bitcoin).

First, we see leadership from gold, silver, Bitcoin, and commodity-related ETFs. Second, only a handful of equity ETFs are trading above their 200-day SMAs. Third, these ETFs represent defensive groups (Consumer Staples Utilities, MLPs, Aerospace & Defense, Insurance). This is NOT the performance profile for a bull market. We are in a bear market and equities are not the place to be right now.

Improve your odds and stay on the right side of the market with the models and analysis at TrendInvestorPro. Our stock market model turned bearish in mid March, and remains bearish. Even with the big surge on April 9th, our thrust indicators fell well short of a signal because of weak follow through. We will continue to watch these models and focus on equity alternatives. Click here to get a bonus and learn more!  

The Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) is in the leadership group and Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) is bouncing off its 270 day SMA. Where did 270 come from? A typical 200-day SMA covers a little less than 9 months of trading days, which exclude weekends and holidays. Bitcoin trades 24/7, weekends and holidays. Chartists, therefore, need an adjustment to get the ~9-month equivalent for Bitcoin. I chose 270.

The chart below shows Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) with a classic correction and setup in the making. Bitcoin gained over 100% from September to January and was entitled to a correction. Dow Theory teaches us that normal corrections retrace 33 to 67 percent of the prior advance. 50 percent is the base case. The chart shows the Fibonacci retracements with Bitcoin retracing 61.8% as it fell to 75000. Bitcoin also tested the rising 270-day SMA in March and April. A 61.8% retracement and return to the ~9-month SMA are normal for corrections (blue shading).

A falling wedge formed with Bitcoin establishing resistance at 88000 (pink line). Falling wedge patterns are also typical for corrections. More importantly, these patterns provide levels to watch for a trend reversal. Bitcoin is making its first breakout attempt with a move above the upper trendline. Further strength above 88000 would forge a higher high and argue for a new uptrend. I would then set a re-evaluation level at the 270-day SMA. A close below this moving average would suggest a failed breakout.  

TrendInvestorPro keeps you on the right side.

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Nintendo on Friday announced that retail preorder for its Nintendo Switch 2 gaming system will begin on April 24 starting at $449.99.

Preorders for the hotly anticipated console were initially slated for April 9, but Nintendo delayed the date to assess the impact of the far-reaching, aggressive “reciprocal” tariffs that President Donald Trump announced earlier this month.

Most electronics companies, including Nintendo, manufacture their products in Asia. Nintendo’s Switch 1 consoles were made in China and Vietnam, Reuters reported in 2019. Trump has imposed a 145% tariff rate on China and a 10% rate on Vietnam. The latter is down from 46%, after he instituted a 90-day pause to allow for negotiations.

Nintendo said Friday that the Switch 2 will cost $449.99 in the U.S., which is the same price the company first announced on April 2.

“We apologize for the retail pre-order delay, and hope this reduces some of the uncertainty our consumers may be experiencing,” Nintendo said in a statement. “We thank our customers for their patience, and we share their excitement to experience Nintendo Switch 2 starting June 5, 2025.”

The Nintendo Switch 2 and “Mario Kart World bundle will cost $499.99, the digital version “Mario Kart World” will cost $79.99 and the digital version of “Donkey Kong Bananza” will cost $69.99, Nintendo said. All of those prices remain unchanged from the company’s initial announcement.

However, accessories for the Nintendo Switch 2 will “experience price adjustments,” the company said, and other future changes in costs are possible for “any Nintendo product.”

It will cost gamers $10 more to by the dock set, $1 more to buy the controller strap and $5 more to buy most other accessories, for instance.

Retailer Best Buy said Friday that it will also begin accepting preorders for the Nintendo Switch 2 console, games and accessories on April 24.

The company said that for the first time in six years, most of its stores will open at midnight for the official launch day, June 5, so that customers can “get their hands on their new Switch 2 immediately.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Netflix executives messaged Thursday that all is well with the business in the face of economic turbulence. But its full-year outlook tells a slightly more nuanced story.

Netflix posted a big beat on operating margin for the first quarter, reporting 31.7% compared with the average estimate of 28.5%, according to StreetAccount. And it guided well above analyst estimates for the second quarter — 33.3% against an average estimate of 30%.

By its own phrasing, Netflix was “ahead” of its own guidance for the first quarter and is “tracking above the mid-point of our 2025 revenue guidance range.”

Still, Netflix declined to alter any of its longer-term projections. That suggests Netflix isn’t quite as confident in its second half.

“There’s been no material change to our overall business outlook since our last earnings report,” Netflix wrote in its quarterly note to shareholders.

U.S. consumer sentiment is at its second-lowest level since 1952 as President Donald Trump’s new tariff policies roil markets.

Co-CEO Greg Peters noted during the company’s earnings conference call that Netflix has, in the past, “been generally quite resilient” to economic slowdowns. Home entertainment provides a cheaper form of leisure than most other activities. A monthly Netflix subscription with ads costs $7.99.

But the question remains how — or whether — an economic slowdown would pinch Americans’ wallets and force higher churn among streaming subscriptions.

Netflix stopped reporting quarterly subscriber numbers this quarter, so the company will likely not detail if it sees a customer slowdown later this year beyond reporting its underlying revenue and profit.

First-quarter revenue of $10.5 billion was roughly in line with analyst expectations, while second-quarter guidance of $11 billion is slightly above.

“Retention, that’s stable and strong. We haven’t seen anything significant in plan mix or plan take rate,” said Peters. “Things generally look stable.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced a temporary Easter ceasefire in his country’s war with Ukraine, the Kremlin said Saturday.

The war has raged for more than three years and cost the lives of tens of thousands of people on both sides. 

‘Guided by humanitarian considerations, today from 18:00 to 00:00 from Sunday to Monday, the Russian side declares an Easter truce,’’ Putin said in a video posted by the Russian ministry of Foreign Affairs.

‘I order that all military actions be stopped for this period.’

In the video, Putin is joined by Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov.

The move appeared to be scoffed at by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy who said shortly after the announcement that air raid alerts were ringing out across Ukraine.

‘As for yet another attempt by Putin to play with human lives—at this moment, air raid alerts are spreading across Ukraine,’ Zelenskyy wrote on X while giving an update on troop positions. It wasn’t entirely clear of he was addressing the truce.

‘At 17:15, Russian attack drones were detected in our skies. Ukrainian air defense and aviation have already begun working to protect us. Shahed drones in our skies reveal Putin’s true attitude toward Easter and toward human life.’

Zelenskyy wrote that Ukrainian forces were battling in the Kursk region and holding their positions. 

‘In the Belgorod region, our warriors have advanced and expanded our zone of control,’ he wrote.

Russia’s Defense Ministry, however, said its forces pushed Ukrainian troops from one of their last remaining footholds in Russia’s Kursk region, where Ukrainian troops staged a surprise incursion last year.

The temporary ceasefire comes after President Donald Trump on Thursday said an 80-page minerals deal will be signed with Ukraine in one week. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later amended that it would likely be signed on April 26. 

Details on the agreement still remain relatively unknown, though recent reporting by Bloomberg has suggested the U.S. has eased back its demands of repayment for its aid in Ukraine’s fight against Russia from $300 billion to $100 billion. 

On Friday, Trump said the U.S. will ‘just take a pass’ at peace efforts for Ukraine if Russian President Vladimir Putin refuses to agree to ceasefire terms. 

‘If for some reason, one of the two parties makes it very difficult, we’re just going to say ‘you’re foolish, you’re fools, you’re horrible people,’ and we’re going to just take a pass,’ Trump told reporters. ‘But hopefully we won’t have to do that.’

Fox News’ Caitlin McFall and The Associated Press contributed to this report. 

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

Antisemitism in Canada has exploded in the aftermath of Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, massacre, reaching record numbers last year and becoming a central issue for the country’s Jewish community ahead of an April 28 federal election.

Last week, Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre, the main challenger to Prime Minister Mark Carney accused pro-Hamas protesters of staging ‘hate marches’ and vowing to deport antisemitic foreigners from Canada.

‘The rampaging chaos that we see in our streets, the targeting of synagogues and Jewish schools with hate, vandalism, violence, fire bombings … these things were unheard of 10 years ago,’ Poilievre said. 

He also had a warning for foreign agitators. ‘Anyone who is here on a visitor visa who carries out lawbreaking will be deported from this country,’ Poilievre said.

‘To Canada’s Jewish community,’ Poilievre added, ‘you are not alone, you have friends. Canadians stand with you. You have the right to wear your Star of David, your kippah, and have your mezuzah on your door. You should feel proud to be Jewish and should never have to hide your Jewishness in order to stay safe.’

On Friday, Poilievre shared on X the Montreal Jewish Community Council’s call for Jewish voters to endorse him. In the video, the group’s executive director, Rabbi Saul Emanuel, referencing Poilievre’s support for the community, stated, ‘We remember who stood with us when it mattered most, and now we can all make a difference.’

Emanuel noted that Jewish voters could play a decisive role in as many as 14 districts in Canada. ‘Our vote matters, our voice matters. That’s why I am proud to support Pierre Poilievre and I urge you to do the same,’ he said.

Carney has also used social media to condemn antisemitism. In a tweet wishing Jewish Canadians a happy Passover, he condemned the growing incidents, stating in part, ‘Together, we must confront and denounce the rising tide of antisemitism, and the threat it poses to Jewish life and safety in communities across Canada.’

Yet despite his strong words against antisemitism, Carney recently faced criticism following a campaign rally in Calgary, where someone yelled at the Liberal Party leader, ‘There’s a genocide happening in Palestine.’

‘I’m aware,’ Carney replied. ‘That’s why we have an arms embargo [on Israel].’

The next day, Carney, who in March replaced longtime Premier Justin Trudeau, claimed he had not heard the anti-Israel demonstrator correctly.

His backtracking did not stop Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from entering the fray. He posted on X that ‘Canada has always sided with civilization. So should Mr. Carney.

‘But instead of supporting Israel, a democracy that is fighting a just war with just means against the barbarians of Hamas, he attacks the one and only Jewish state,’ Netanyahu posted.

According to an annual audit released this month by B’nai Brith Canada, the total number of reported cases of Jew hatred in the country hit 6,219 in 2024, a 7.4% increase over 2023 and the highest number since the survey’s inception in 1982.

Antisemitic incidents in Canada have skyrocketed by 124.6% since 2022.

‘Over the last 18 months, a new baseline has been established for antisemitism in Canada, and it’s having a detrimental effect on the lives of Jewish people,’ Richard Robertson, director of research and advocacy at B’nai Brith Canada, told Fox News Digital. ‘We are seeing an increase in certain forms of antisemitism, specifically anti-Zionism.’

Irwin Cotler, a former justice minister and attorney general of Canada for the Liberal Party, told Fox News Digital ‘antisemitism has become mainstream, normalized and legitimized in the political, popular, academic, media, entertainment and sport cultures. All this happened in the absence of outrage,’ he said.

‘I hope that whichever party gets elected, we will see deliverables in combating specific hate crime, hate speech, harassment, assault, vandalism and all the things you find reported in the [B’nai Brith] annual report. From my experience, even those statistics are not telling the true story. They are underreported.’

‘The community of democracies must act because the security of our collective freedom is at stake,’ Cotler warned.

Israeli Ambassador to Canada Iddo Moed told Fox News Digital many local Jews ‘feel vulnerable, unsafe and unprotected by law enforcement bodies, governments and education systems that have stood by as antisemitism reached crisis levels.’ 

He noted that Israel, the homeland of the Jewish people, is obligated to act when Jews in the Diaspora are in distress.

‘Equipping teachers with the resources to teach about antisemitism and the Holocaust is essential to ensure future generations understand the dangers of hatred and continue to embrace peace, tolerance and equality,’ he added.

The antisemitism survey highlighted numerous incidents, ranging from Quebec daily La Presse publishing a cartoon depicting Netanyahu as Nosferatu, a vampire associated with Jews in Nazi-era propaganda and a pro-Hamas protester at the University of Toronto shouting at a Jewish student that Hitler should have ‘murdered all of you.’

In May, an arsonist ignited a fire at the entrance to the Schara Tzedeck Synagogue in Vancouver as prayers concluded. The same month, shots were fired at the Bais Chaya Mushka girls’ school in Toronto, and the school has since been targeted twice more by gunfire. In August, a bomb threat affected Jewish institutions across the country. In December, a firebomb struck Congregation Beth Tikvah in Montreal, the second such attack since Oct. 7, 2023.

Thereafter, Israeli President Isaac Herzog called on the Canadian government to take action to ‘stamp out’ antisemitism. 

‘The world must wake up. Words are not enough. Synagogues burned. Jews attacked. Never again is now,’ he said, employing the adage stressing a commitment to preventing another Holocaust.

Anthony Housefather is the MP in the House of Commons for Mount Royal, an area with a large Jewish population held by the Liberals since 1940 being viewed as a bellwether for where the community stands.

‘The alarming numbers [of antisemitic incidents] make it clear as to why every level of government in the country needs to work together to implement all the recommendations set out in the justice committee report of last December and the commitments made at the national summit on antisemitism in March,’ Housefather told Fox News Digital.

Trudeau, who was widely panned for failing to adequately address the groundswell of antisemitism, had announced the summit within hours of Herzog’s condemnation.

Neil Oberman, the Conservative Party candidate running against Housefather, told Fox News Digital that in Mount Royal ‘personal safety and security have become serious issues.

‘It’s a stark reminder of the urgent need for a federal government consisting of adults implementing actions instead of putting together summits and position papers and blaming everybody else to combat hate and protect vulnerable communities,’ Oberman said.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

Stocks vs. bonds? In this video, Julius breaks down the asset allocation outlook and why defensive sectors, large-cap value, and bonds may continue to outperform in this volatile market. He starts at the asset allocation level using Relative Rotation Graphs (RRGs) to analyze stocks vs bonds performance, then highlights the ongoing defensive sector rotation, and identifies strength in large-cap value stocks.

To close out the show, Julius dives into stock-specific opportunities based on the relative rotation of sector constituents, pointing to potential leadership shifts as market volatility rises.

This video was originally published on April 17, 2025. Click on the icon above to view on our dedicated page for Julius.

Past videos from Julius can be found here.

#StayAlert, -Julius

In this video, Grayson unveils StockCharts’ new Market Summary ChartPack—an incredibly valuable new ChartPack packed full of pre-built charts covering breadth, sentiment, volatility data and MUCH MORE!

From there, Grayson then breaks down what he’s seeing on the current Market Summary dashboard, illustrating how he’s putting this invaluable tool to work in the current climate. He highlights weakness in Small Cap stocks, uses the Factors Map to pinpoint the groups that investors are gravitating to, and explains why the sea of red across the breadth maps continues to be a clear indication of the weakness in this market.

This video originally premiered on April 18, 2024. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated Grayson Roze page on StockCharts TV.

You can view previously recorded videos from Grayson at this link.

It was another erratic week in the stock market. There were several market-moving events sprinkled throughout this short trading week, including earnings, escalation of tariff wars, and Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks at the Economic Club of Chicago. This extended to wild swings in the bond market as well.

We had several positive earnings from banks and Netflix, Inc. (NFLX). Others, such as UnitedHealth Group, Inc. (UNH), disappointed, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) lower by 1.33%.

Chairman Powell stated that tariffs could increase inflation. This would cause economic growth to slow down and unemployment to increase. The hope is that inflation is transitory, and, after it becomes stable, the Fed can continue to focus on its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability.

It’s an insecure time for investors, and many feel the pain. You’re probably wondering how long this pain will go on for. In an uncertain environment, the best you can do is turn to the bond market.

It’s All About Bonds

The recent wild swinging market activity can be encapsulated in the price action of Treasury yields. Since 2024, yields have been swinging up and down. In the past year, the 10-year Treasury yield has ranged from 3.60% to 4.81%, and when the range is this wide, it’s an indication of economic instability. Not to mention, economic instability could result in a weaker economy.

The daily chart of the 10-Year US Treasury Yield Index ($TNX) gives you an idea of the range of yields in the last year. More recently, the yield has risen from 3.89% to 4.59%, and has now pulled back to its 50-day simple moving average (SMA).

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELDS. Yields have been seeing some large up and down swings.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Generally, when stock prices fall, bond prices rise. Since bond yields move inversely to bond prices, you’d expect yields to fall. This scenario isn’t playing out. Instead, we’re seeing yields move erratically while bond prices remain suppressed. There needs to be stability in bond yields before a stock market recovery, and one way to do that is to monitor the chart of the Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate, referred to as the MOVE Index ($MOVE).

The MOVE Index tracks bond volatility. Think of it as the bond counterpart to the Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX). The chart below displays the $MOVE/$VIX relationship, with the correlation between the two in the lower panel.

FIGURE 2. THE MOVE INDEX VS. VIX. A high correlation between the MOVE Index and VIX suggests interest rates and stock prices are tightly connected. A lower correlation would indicate stability in equities.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The two have been highly correlated since the end of March, which indicates that stocks and interest rates are tightly connected. This means the wild up and down swings in equities could continue. When the two are less correlated, we can expect equities to start settling down. Looking at the above chart, a correlation of 0.80 would be sufficient for signs of stability.

Both $VIX and $MOVE have come back slightly, but their correlation is at 0.93, which is relatively high.

Be sure to save both charts displayed in this article to your ChartLists. They could alert you to stability in the stock market ahead of other indicators.

The Bottom Line

Until stability returns, you could do the following:

  • Stay on the sidelines and keep some dry powder.
  • Invest in risk-off instruments such as gold and silver.
  • Park some of your money in defensive sectors.

Equities could slide lower before stability returns. If this happens, you could pick up some growth stocks for a bargain.

An empowered investor comes out ahead after market instability. So monitor the market closely and, when the time is right, make wise investment decisions.

End-of-Week Wrap-Up

  • S&P 500 down 1.50% on the week, at 5282.70, Dow Jones Industrial Average down 2.66% on the week at 39,142.23; Nasdaq Composite down 2.62% on the week at 16,286.45.
  • $VIX down 21.06% on the week, closing at 29.65.
  • Best performing sector for the week: Energy
  • Worst performing sector for the week: Consumer Discretionary
  • Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Palantir Technologies, Inc. (PLTR); Elbit Systems, Ltd. (ESLT); Anglogold Ashanti Ltd. (AU); Just Eat Takeaway.com (JTKWY); Kinross Gold Corp. (KGC)

On the Radar Next Week

  • Earnings season continues with Haliburton (HAL), Tesla (TSLA), Boeing Co. (BA), International Business Machines (IBM) and others reporting.
  • 30-Year Mortgage Rates
  • March New Home Sales and Building Permits
  • April S&P PMI
  • April Consumer Sentiment
  • Fed speeches from Jefferson, Harker, Kashkari, and others.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Reflecting on the price action over this shortened holiday week, I’m struck by how the leadership trends have not really changed too much. We’ve observed bombed-out market breadth indicators, and the S&P 500 remains clearly below its 200-day moving average despite a strong upside swing off the early April market low.

But how much as the leadership of this market changed over the last couple weeks? I would argue that conditions remain fairly consistent over that period, and are still not overwhelmingly bullish.

Defensive Sectors Still Outperforming Offense

Here’s one of my favorite charts for analyzing offense vs. defense, a chart that holds a place of honor on my Market Misbehavior LIVE ChartList. We’re comparing the Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples using both cap-weighted and equal-weighted ETFs.

When the ratios are going higher, investors are favoring “things you want” over “things you need”, which implies optimism for economic growth. When the ratios slope lower, that suggests more defensive positioning as investors are skeptical of growth prospects.

We can see that the cap-weighted version of this ratio made a peak in January, while the equal-weighted version made its own top in February. Both ratios have been in a fairly consistent downtrend of lower highs and lower lows, even through last week’s sudden spike on tariff policy changes.

How bullish do I want to be when these ratios are sloping lower? Generally speaking, I’ve found that until investors start believing in the upside potential of Consumer Discretionary over the relative defense of Consumer Staples, it’s best to remain on the sidelines.

Using the RRG to Visualize Offense vs. Defense

While I often refer to relative strength ratios of sector ETFs vs. the S&P 500 index, I also enjoy leveraging the power of Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG®) to monitor a series of relative strength ratios in one simple but powerful visualization.

Here, I’m showing the 11 S&P 500 economic sectors relative to the S&P 500, and I’m highlighting Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples to monitor their relative positions. If you click “Animate” for this visualization, you’ll see that toward the end of 2024, offense was clearly outperforming defense. The XLY was in the Leading quadrant, the XLP was in the Lagging quadrant, and the rotations suggested a classic bull market configuration.

Fast-forward to February and March and you’ll see how Consumer Discretionary rotated into the Weakening and then Lagging quadrant. Meanwhile, Consumer Staples strengthened during that same period. At this point, the RRG is telling me defense over offense, in a classic bearish configuration.

Sticking With Groceries, Guns, and Gold

So, given the bearish leadership configuration in spite of a sudden bounce of the April market low, where can we find potential opportunities? I’ll highlight three ideas that I’ll summarize as “Groceries, Guns, and Gold.”

Playing off the “things you need” theme implied above, grocery retailer Kroger Co. (KR) has managed to pound out a fairly consistent pattern of higher highs and higher lows. With improving momentum and a new 12-month relative high this week, this is a chart continuing in a clear uptrend despite broad market weakness.  By the way, KR was one of the Top Ten Charts for April 2025 I presented with Grayson Roze!

Defense stocks like Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC) have experienced an upside resurgence given geopolitical instability in 2025. From a technical perspective, I love how charts like NOC have rallied since mid-February, while most stocks, as well as our equity benchmarks, have been trending lower! There’s a significant resistance level to overcome around $550, but a confirmed break higher could open the door to further gains.

Gold has experienced an incredible run so far in 2025, finishing the week up 26% for the year compared to the S&P 500’s 10% loss over the same period. Similar to the chart of NOC, Newmont Corporation (NEM) is addressing a key resistance level from a major high in October 2024. But, so far in 2025, NEM has been scoring higher highs and higher lows, potentially building momentum for a break to a new all-time high.

It can be super tempting to consider the April low as “the bottom” and go all-in on growth stocks and offensive plays. But, given the lack of leadership rotation in April, I’m inclined to stick with charts that remain in strong uptrends during uncertain times.

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!


David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

The week that went by was a short trading week with just three trading days. However, the Indian equities continued to surge higher, demonstrating resilience, and the week ended on a positive note. In the week before this one, the Nifty was able to defend the 100-week MA; last week, it surged higher and closed just at the 50-week MA. The trading range got narrower; the Index oscillated in a 665.35-point range. The volatility, too, cooled off; the India Vix declined by 23.08% to 15.47. While staying largely stable with a strong underlying bias, the headline Index closed with a net weekly gain of 1023.10 points (+4.48%).

There are a few technical levels that need to be closely observed. The Nifty resisted the 100-day moving average (DMA) at 23395 before breaking out above that level. Zooming out to the weekly chart, the Nifty has closed at the 50-week MA, currently placed at 23885. This point and the 200-DMA at 24050 create an important resistance zone for the Nifty. While there is room for Nifty to move higher towards the 24000 level, there are strong possibilities of the markets consolidating between the 23900 and 24000 levels. While no major drawdowns are expected, there is a high chance that the upmove may at least take a breather around this level. It is important to watch Nifty’s behavior against this level.

The coming week may start on a stable note; the levels of 24,000 and 24,210 are likely to act as resistance points. The support will come lower at 23500 and then at 23345, which is the 20-week MA.

The weekly RSI is 53.94; it has formed a 14-period high, indicating a bullish trend. The weekly MACD has shown a positive crossover; it is now bullish and trades above its signal line.

The pattern analysis on the weekly chart shows that the Nifty has returned to the important level of the 50-week moving average, which it previously violated when it initiated its corrective move. This level and the 200-DMA placed at a short distance at 24050 are likely to offer resistance. This would mean that the markets are entering a major resistance zone; unless 24050 is taken out on the upside, we can expect the markets to consolidate, showing minor retracements over the coming days.

Overall, it is time for one to focus on protecting the gains at higher levels. While one may continue staying invested on the long side, new purchases must focus on the pockets that have shown the improvement of relative strength at lower levels and show strong signs of reversing their trend. Effective rotation into sectors that show improvement in their relative strength and protecting gains in the pockets that have run up hard would be important. A cautiously positive outlook is advised for the coming week.


Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), which represents over 95% of the free float market cap of all the stocks listed.

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show the Nifty PSU Bank and Consumption sector Index has rolled inside the leading quadrant. The Commodities, Financial Services, Banknifty, Infrastructure, and Metal Index are also placed inside the leading quadrant. While the Metal Index is showing a weakening of relative momentum, these groups are likely to relatively outperform the broader Nifty 500 index.

There are no sectors inside the weakening quadrant.

The Pharma Sector Index has rolled inside the lagging quadrant. The IT index also continues to languish inside this quadrant, along with the Midcap 100 index. The  Realty and the Media Indices are also inside the lagging quadrant; however, they are seen sharply improving their relative momentum against the broader markets.

The Nifty PSE, Energy, and FMCG Indices are inside the improving quadrant; they are expected to continue improving on their relative performance over the coming week.


Important Note: RRG charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  


Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae