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Trump inks trade deal with UK, previews China trade negotiations during 16th week in office

Politics 4 Mins Read

President Donald Trump and his administration inked a major trade deal with the U.K. Thursday, and closed the week gearing up for trade talks with China over the weekend. 

Details of the specific trade plan with the U.K. are sparse, but the deal keeps the existing 10% tariffs in place against U.K. goods while removing some import taxes on items like steel and cars. 

‘With this deal, the U.K. joins the United States in affirming that reciprocity and fairness is an essential and vital principle of international trade,’ Trump said Thursday. ‘The deal includes billions of dollars of increased market access for American exports, especially in agriculture, dramatically increasing access for American beef, ethanol and virtually all of the products produced by our great farmers.’ 

The deal is the first historic trade negotiation signed following Liberation Day, when Trump announced widespread tariffs for multiple countries April 2 at a range of rates. 

The administration later adjusted its initial proposal and announced April 9 it would immediately impose a 145% tariff on Chinese goods, while reducing reciprocal tariffs on other countries for 90 days to a baseline of 10%. China responded by raising tariffs on U.S. goods to 125%.

Trump also shed some insight into trade negotiations with China, given that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduled to kick off trade negotiations with China in Switzerland Saturday. 

‘Scott’s going to be going to Switzerland, meeting with China,’ Trump told reporters Thursday at the White House. ‘And you know, they very much want to make a deal. We can all play games. Who made the first call, who didn’t make them? It doesn’t matter. Only matters what happens in that room. But I will tell you that China very much wants to make a deal. We’ll see how that works out.’

Here’s what also happened this week: 

Meeting with Canada’s prime minister 

Trump also doubled down on his interest in expanding the U.S. during a Tuesday visit with Canada’s prime minister, Mark Carney. 

Trump regularly has said he wants Canada to become a U.S. state, and has discussed acquiring Greenland and the Panama Canal for security purposes. However, the matter of Canada isn’t open to negotiation, Carney said. 

‘Having met with the owners of Canada over the course of the campaign the last several months, it’s not for sale,’ Carney said at the White House Tuesday. ‘Won’t be for sale ever, but the opportunity is in the partnership and what we can build together. We have done that in the past, and part of that, as the president just said, is with respect to our security, and my government is committed for a step change in our investment in Canadian security and our partnership.’

While Trump acknowledged that Canada was stepping up its investment in military security, he said, ‘Never say never’ in response to Canada becoming another state. 

‘I’ve had many, many things that were not doable, and they ended up being doable,’ Trump said.

 

Meeting with ballet dancer freed from Russian prison 

Trump also met with Russian-American ballet dancer, Ksenia Karelina, at the White House Monday. Karelina faced a sentence of 12 years in a Russian penal colony for treason in 2024, but the Trump administration negotiated her return to the U.S. during a U.S.-Russian prisoner swap in April. 

‘Mr. Trump, I’m so, so grateful for you to bring me home and for (the) American government. And I never felt more blessed to be American, and I’m so, so happy to get home,’ Karelina said in a video posted by Trump deputy assistant Sebastian Gorka on April 11 upon her return to the U.S.

Karelina, a resident of Los Angeles who was born in Russia, was arrested in 2024 during a trip to visit family in Yekaterinburg, Russia. Russia Federal Security Service arrested her after inspecting her phone and finding a donation to a U.S.-based charity that supports Ukraine. 

Fox News’ Emma Colton contributed to this report. 

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

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Business

Cargo thieves are attacking the U.S. supply chain at alarming rates

Business 2 Mins Read

America’s supply chain is under attack.

From coast to coast, organized criminal groups are hitting trucks on the road, breaking into warehouses and pilfering expensive items from train cars, according to industry experts and law enforcement officials CNBC interviewed during a six-month investigation.

It’s all part of a record surge in cargo theft in which criminal networks in the U.S. and abroad exploit technology intended to improve supply chain efficiency and use it to steal truckloads of valuable products. Armed with doctored invoices, the fraudsters impersonate the staff of legitimate companies in order to divert cargo into the hands of criminals.

The widespread scheme is “low risk and a very high reward,” according to Keith Lewis, vice president of Verisk CargoNet, which tracks theft trends in the industry.

“The return on investment is almost 100%,” he said. “And if there’s no risk of getting caught, why not do it better and do it faster?”

In 2024, Verisk CargoNet recorded 3,798 incidents of cargo theft, representing a 26% increase over 2023.

Total reported losses topped nearly $455 million, according to Verisk CargoNet, but industry experts told CNBC that number is likely lower than the true toll because many cases go unreported. Numerous experts who spoke to CNBC estimate losses are close to $1 billion or more a year.

Train cargo thefts alone shot up about 40% in 2024, with more than 65,000 reported incidents, according to the Association of American Railroads.

Industry experts and law enforcement officials say a more sophisticated and insidious form of cargo theft called strategic theft is also on the rise.

The way the system is supposed to work is this: A shipper pays a broker, and the broker, after taking its fee, pays the carrier, the trucking company that moves the load.

In strategic theft, criminals use deceptive tactics to trick shippers, brokers or carriers into handing cargo or legitimate payments, sometimes both, over to them instead of the legitimate companies.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

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Politics

Trump’s ‘Art of the Deal’ diplomacy just delivered a global win—without a shot fired

Politics 5 Mins Read
NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!

Something extraordinary happened on Friday, but you likely didn’t see it in the headlines.

In Washington, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) quietly approved a $2.3 billion bailout package for Pakistan. On the surface, it was just another financial deal. But beneath the surface, this vote tied together three of the most pressing foreign policy theaters in the world: India-Pakistan, Ukraine-Russia, and U.S.-China.

And the common thread?

President Trump’s return to ‘Art of the Deal’ diplomacy.

The $2.3 billion IMF package included a $1 billion tranche under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and $1.3 billion under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). But many experts were surprised this vote even happened, let alone passed.

Just last year, Pakistan’s IMF bailout was contingent on its assistance in rearming NATO during the Ukraine war. The Biden administration leaned heavily on Pakistan to support weapons transfers, using routes like the Nur Khan Airbase to send munitions to Europe.

This time around, the vote looked shaky. The Trump administration has made it clear it wants to end the war in Ukraine—and all wars that bleed U.S. taxpayers without clear gain. Meanwhile, India was lobbying both the IMF and the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) to block funding to Pakistan, citing terrorism financing concerns.

And then came the vote.

India abstained. So did China and Russia. The ‘yes’ votes came from the United States and the United Kingdom.

If you’re wondering why the U.S.—under Trump’s second term—would back a loan to a terror-linked state in the middle of a war, here’s the answer: because the deal was far bigger than Pakistan.

Let’s unpack what likely happened.

India’s abstention puzzled many. It had taken a strong stand against the IMF loan, arguing that it violated basic principles of counter-terror financing. For India to let it slide signaled something else was in play.

Trump’s first major diplomatic focus post-inauguration was reworking America’s global trade deals, and India was high on the list. The president had long called India the ‘tariff king,’ and negotiations had been underway to reduce agricultural and industrial tariffs. In fact, Vice President JD Vance had been dispatched to New Delhi—not a low-level envoy.

There were signs a deal was close. But the momentum was disrupted by a major terrorist attack in Kashmir, which India blamed on Pakistan-based groups. The India-U.S. trade deal went into a holding pattern.

Now, India’s IMF abstention appears less like inaction and more like a trade-off: a quiet concession, in return for favorable terms in the broader trade agreement with the U.S.

Pakistan, for its part, was running on empty. It reportedly had only four days of ammunition left and faced near-total economic collapse. Though some NATO members had sent emergency aid, the U.S. itself has been moving to reduce entanglements with NATO and phase out military support in Ukraine.

But here’s where it gets more interesting.

The United States has long had an internal debate over Pakistan. During the Cold War and the war on terror, some intelligence factions saw Pakistan as a necessary partner—even when it meant funding terror groups like the Mujahideen. In more recent years, others have shifted toward India as the natural counterweight to China.

This division within U.S. security circles matters, because it means that the fight over Pakistan is both internal and external.

And yet, the Trump administration pushed the vote through.

Why?

One likely condition: a ceasefire in the India-Pakistan conflict.

But there may have been another condition—one that had China’s fingerprints all over it.

If there’s one country that stands to gain from Pakistan’s financial boost, it’s China.

Pakistan is deeply indebted to China through Belt and Road infrastructure deals. And more to the point, most of its military imports come from Chinese manufacturers. Any fresh IMF cash would likely end up buying Chinese weapons.

So why did China abstain from voting on Pakistan’s loan?

Simple: Because Trump likely barred it.

Sources close to the matter suggest that strict terms were placed on the loan—stipulating that IMF funds cannot be spent on Chinese or Russian weapons systems, only American ones. That alone would have removed China’s incentive to back the package.

Add to that the increasing chatter over Chinese versus Western arms systems in the India-Pakistan conflict—and China’s abstention begins to make a lot of sense.

By pushing this IMF package forward under strict conditions, the Trump administration appears to have pulled off a remarkable maneuver:

  • Restarted the India-U.S. trade deal
  • Brokered a diplomatic win and ceasefire in South Asia
  • Weaned Pakistan off Chinese weapons dependency

All in one vote.

There were no headlines. No press briefings. No declarations of success.

But that’s often how real power operates.

Critics may scoff at the idea that Trump is capable of high-level diplomacy. But for those tracking the architecture of global influence—this vote was not noise. It was signal.

It was a reminder that American power, when wielded with strategic clarity, doesn’t need to announce itself loudly.

It just needs to move the board. Quietly. Completely. Effectively.

And if you were watching this one closely, you saw just that.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

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Stock

Which Will Hit First: SPX 6100 or SPX 5100?

Stock 5 Mins Read

Last Friday, the S&P 500 finished the week just below 5700. The question going into this week was, “Will the S&P 500 get propelled above the 200-day?” And as I review the evidence after Friday’s close, I’m noting that the SPX is almost exactly where it was one week ago!

That’s right–after all the headlines, tariff tantrums, and earnings reports, the S&P 500 ended the week 0.4% below where it started. This “lack of conviction” week led me to post the following poll on X, asking followers to decide which they felt would happen first: a retest of the February 2025 high or a retest of the April 2025 low.

I was actually quite surprised that there wasn’t more optimism after April’s incredible rally phase, but you can see that 55% of respondents thought the February high around 6150 would be hit first. So unlike the AAII survey’s recent readings, there appear to be more bulls than bears out there.

Based on this week’s extended choppiness, I thought it might be good to revisit an approach called “probabilistic analysis” to consider four potential paths for the S&P 500 between now and late June 2025. Basically, I’ll share four different scenarios, describe the market conditions that would likely be involved, and also share my estimated probability for each scenario.

By the way, we last ran this analytical process on the S&P 500 back in January, and you need to see which scenario actually played out!

And remember, the point of this exercise is threefold:

  1. Consider all four potential future paths for the index, think about what would cause each scenario to unfold in terms of the macro drivers, and review what signals/patterns/indicators would confirm the scenario.
  2. Decide which scenario you feel is most likely, and why you think that’s the case. Don’t forget to drop me a comment and let me know your vote!
  3. Think about how each of the four scenarios would impact your current portfolio. How would you manage risk in each case? How and when would you take action to adapt to this new reality?

Let’s start with the most optimistic scenario, with the S&P 500 index continuing the recent uptrend phase to retest all-time highs by June.

Option 1: The Super Bullish Scenario

Our most bullish scenario would mean that the aggressive rally phase off the April low would essentially continue in its current form. After perhaps the briefest of pullbacks at the 200-day moving average, we continue to the upside. This scenario would most likely mean the Magnificent 7 stocks would have to really find their mojo, with names like GOOGL, AAPL, and AMZN finally breaking through their 200-day moving averages.

Dave’s Vote: 10%

Option 2: The Mildly Bullish Scenario

What if the S&P 500 stalls around the 200-day, with a pullback that inspires even more indecision among investors? Perhaps we are still in “wait and see” mode as some tariff negotiations prove fruitful, but empty shipping containers remind consumers of the prospects of chronic inflation.  By mid-June, we’re no closer to a real clear sense of direction than we are today.

Dave’s vote: 30%

Option 3: The Mildly Bearish Scenario

Because of the time frame I’ve selected, there won’t be another Fed meeting until after this period is over. So, what if inflation data starts to imply real price issues, consumer sentiment really starts to falter, and the Fed is unable to take any meaningful action to address mounting concerns? If we fail to push above the 200-day moving average soon, then 5500 would be a likely area of support on the way down.  This scenario brings us right back down to that level.

Dave’s vote: 40%

Option 4: The Very Bearish Scenario

You always need a bear case, and this one would entail a new distribution phase that takes the major benchmarks down to retest the April low. I’d say a reasonable downside objective would be 5100, and we’ll spend the month of June debating whether we’re forming a huge double bottom pattern or see another bounce higher. Defensive sectors shine as investors rotate big time to risk-off positions.

Dave’s vote: 20%

What probabilities would you assign to each of these four scenarios?  Check out the video below, and then drop a comment with which scenario you select and why!

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

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Stock

Confused by the Market? Let the Traffic Light Indicator Guide You

Stock 1 Min Read

In this insightful session, Grayson introduces the Traffic Light indicator, a unique tool available exclusively on the Advanced Charting Platform (ACP). Amidst the current volatility of the S&P 500, Grayson demonstrates how this indicator can help investors clarify trend directions and make more confident decisions.

This video originally premiered on May 9, 2025. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated Grayson Roze page on StockCharts TV.

You can view previously recorded videos from Grayson at this link.

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Investing

7 Copper ETFs and ETNs

Investing 4 Mins Read

There’s more than one way to invest in copper. In addition to buying shares of copper stocks, investors can gain exposure through copper exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or copper exchange-traded notes (ETNs).

For the uninitiated, ETFs are securities that trade like stocks on an exchange, but track an index, commodity, bonds or a basket of assets like an index fund. In the case of base metal copper, there are various options — an ETF can track specific groups of copper-focused companies, as well as copper futures contracts or even physical copper.

ETNs also track an underlying asset and trade like stocks on an exchange, but they differ from ETFs in some ways. Specifically, ETNs are more like bonds — they are unsecured debt notes issued by an institution, and can be held to maturity or bought and sold at will. The main disadvantage to be aware of is that investors risk total default if an ETN’s underwriter goes bankrupt.

The copper outlook is strong as demand rises and concerns about supply increase as the energy transition gains traction. This has caused many investors to wonder how to take advantage of the potential in the copper market.

1. Global X Copper Miners ETF (ARCA:COPX)

Assets under management: US$2.09 billion

The Global X Copper Miners ETF tracks the Solactive Global Copper Miners Index, which covers copper exploration companies, developers and producers. The fund has an expense ratio of 0.65 percent.

The fund currently has 39 holdings, with the top three companies being First Quantum Minerals (TSX:FM,OTC Pink:FQVLF), Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) and Lundin Mining (TSX:LUN,OTC Pink:LUNMF).

2. United States Copper Index Fund (ARCA:CPER)

Assets under management: US$162.94 million

The United States Copper Index Fund aims to give investors exposure to a portfolio of copper futures without using a commodity futures account. It has an expense ratio of 1.04 percent.

The fund tracks the performance of the SummerHaven Copper Index Total Return (INDEXNYSEGIS:SCITR), which is calculated based on certain copper futures contracts selected on a monthly basis.

3. Sprott Physical Copper Trust (TSX:COP.U,OTCQX:SPHCF)

Assets under management: US$96.59 million

A relatively new ETF, the Sprott Physical Copper Trust was established in July 2024 and is one of the first funds to be based around physical copper. The fund has an expense ratio of 2.03 percent.

As of the start of May 2025, the fund held 10,157 metric tons of copper worth US$96.59 million.

4. iShares Copper and Metals Mining ETF (NASDAQ:ICOP)

Assets under management: US$50.63 million

The iShares Copper and Metals Mining ETF tracks the STOXX Global Copper and Metals Mining Index, which is composed of public companies primarily engaged in copper and metal mining. It has an expense ratio of 0.47 percent.

The fund represents a global portfolio of 41 copper companies. Its top three holdings are Grupo Mexico (OTC Pink:GMBXF,BMV:GMEXICOB), BHP (NYSE:BHP,ASX:BHP,LSE:BHP) and Freeport McMoRan.

5. Sprott Copper Miners ETF (NASDAQ:COPP)

Assets under management: US$23.65 million

Sprott Asset Management bills its Sprott Copper Miners ETF as ‘the only pure-play ETF focused on large-, mid- and small-cap copper mining companies that are providing a critical mineral necessary for the clean energy transition.’

It came to market in March 2024, and has an expense ratio of 0.65 percent.

The fund is made up of a portfolio of 49 companies and has a market cap of US$279 billion; it is rebalanced twice a year in June and December. The fund’s top three holdings are Freeport-McMoRan, Teck Resources (TSX:TECK.A,TECK.B,NYSE:TECK) and Ivanhoe Mines (TSX:IVN,OTCQX:IVPAF).

6. Sprott Junior Copper Miners ETF (NASDAQ:COPJ)

Assets under management: US$12.6 million

Launched in February 2023, the Sprott Junior Copper Miners is a pure-play ETF that, as its name suggests, is focused on small-cap copper miners. It has an expense ratio of 0.76 percent.

The fund consists of 40 companies, and its top three holdings are Northern Dynasty Minerals (TSX:NDM,NYSEAMERICAN:NAK), Solaris Resources (TSX:SLS,NYSEAMERICAN:SLSR) and Atalaya Mining (LSE:ATYM).

Like Sprott’s other copper fund on this list, COPJ is rebalanced twice a year in June and December.

7. iPath Series B Bloomberg Copper Subindex Total Return ETN (OTC Pink:JJCTF)

Assets under management: US$6.9 million

The iPath Series B Bloomberg Copper Subindex Total Return ETN provides exposure to the Bloomberg Copper Subindex Total Return. According to Barclays (LSE:BARC), the note ‘reflects the returns that are potentially available through an unleveraged investment in the futures contracts on copper.’ It is tied to the high-grade copper futures contract available on the Comex and carries an expense ratio of 0.75 percent.

Unlike an ETF, an ETN does not own the underlying asset. Instead, an ETN functions in the same way as an uninsured bond. Investopedia states that investors take their profits when they sell the note or it reaches maturity.

Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold shares of Northern Dynasty Minerals.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

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Investing

Crypto Market Recap: Bitcoin Breaks US$100,000 as ETF Inflows Rise, Coinbase Makes US$2.9 Billion Power Play

Investing 4 Mins Read

Here’s a quick recap of the crypto landscape for Friday (May 9) as of 9:00 p.m. UTC.

Get the latest insights on Bitcoin, Ethereum and altcoins, along with a round-up of key cryptocurrency market news.

Bitcoin and Ethereum price update

Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at US$103,027 as markets opened, up 1.3 percent in 24 hours. After breaking through the US$100,000 threshold Thursday (May 8) the digital asset has found support. The day’s range has seen a low of US$102,871 and a high of US$103,672.

Bitcoin performance, May 9, 2025.

Chart via TradingView.

Bitcoin’s recent price surge is driven by the US government’s decision to legalize strategic Bitcoin reserves—boosting investor confidence and signaling institutional backing—alongside growing global adoption supported by favorable regulations and broader acceptance across sectors.

Ethereum (ETH) started the trading day at US$2,220 and quickly rallied. The cryptocurrency reached an intraday low of US$1,792.06 and saw a daily high of US$2,415.

Altcoin price update

  • Solana (SOL) opened at US$169.63 up 4.57 percent over 24 hours. SOL experienced a low of US$151.51 and a high of US$171.39.
  • XRP was trading at US$2.33, reflecting a 5 percent increase over 24 hours. The cryptocurrency reached a daily high of US$2.36 midday.
  • Sui (SUI) was priced at US$3.80, showing an increaseof 0.50 percent over the past 24 hours. It achieved a daily low of US$3.36 and a high of US$3.92.
  • Cardano (ADA) is trading at US$0.7866, up 7 percent over the past 24 hours. Its lowest price of the day was US$0.71, and it reached a high of US$0.79.

Today’s crypto news to know

Bitcoin surges past $100,000 amid trade optimism and institutional inflows

Bitcoin (BTC) has reclaimed the US$100,000 mark for the first time since February, driven by optimism surrounding a new US-UK trade deal and significant institutional investments. On May 8, US Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows totaling US$117.4 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC leading the gains.

Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady has bolstered investor confidence in crypto markets.

Coinbase acquires Deribit in landmark US$2.9 billion crypto derivatives deal

Coinbase has announced its acquisition of Deribit, a leading crypto derivatives exchange, for $2.9 billion—the largest deal in the crypto industry to date. This strategic move positions Coinbase to expand its offerings in the crypto options market, catering to the growing demand for advanced trading products.

The acquisition includes US$700 million in cash and 11 million shares of Coinbase Class A common stock. Deribit, which processed US$1.2 trillion in trading volume last year, controls approximately 85 percent of the global crypto options market.

This deal is expected to enhance Coinbase’s presence in the international derivatives market and diversify its revenue streams.

Analysts view the acquisition as a significant step for Coinbase to compete with other major exchanges like Binance and Kraken in the derivatives space. The transaction is subject to regulatory approvals and is anticipated to close later this year. Until then, Deribit will continue its operations as usual.

Celsius founder sentenced to 12 years for crypto fraud

Alex Mashinsky, founder and former CEO of Celsius Network, has been sentenced to 12 years in federal prison for defrauding customers and manipulating the price of the company’s CEL token.

Between 2018 and 2022, Mashinsky misled investors about the safety of their funds, using customer deposits to inflate CEL’s value and personally profiting over US$48 million. Celsius, which once managed over US$25 billion in assets, collapsed in 2022 amid a broader crypto market downturn, leaving thousands of users unable to access their funds.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Securities Disclosure: I, Meagen Seatter, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

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Stock

Where the Market Goes Next: Key Resistance Levels + Top Bullish Stocks to Watch Now

Stock 1 Min Read

Want to know where the stock market is headed next? In this week’s market update, Mary Ellen McGonagle analyzes key resistance levels and reveals what’s fueling the current uptrend. She highlights top bullish setups among U.S. leadership stocks, plus global names showing strength.

This video originally premiered May 9, 2025. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen’s videos.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

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Stock

Investment Portfolio Feeling Stagnant? Transform Your Path Today

Stock 5 Mins Read

When your investment portfolio isn’t gaining ground, it’s natural to feel uneasy, especially in a market that lacks direction. A headline-driven environment only adds to the uneasiness, making it more difficult to decide whether to buy, hold, or sell.

This is a challenging situation for investors. The S&P 500 ($SPX) is still hovering close to its “Liberation Day” level, struggling to break above it. Of the three major indexes, the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) was able to break above the April 2 levels, but is having a hard time reaching its March 25 high, which, as of this writing, aligns with its 200-day simple moving average (SMA).

What’s Behind the Lack of Direction?

Much of the market’s indecision centers on uncertainty surrounding tariffs. Trade deals are front and center in the news, with the most important one being with China. Those talks kick off this weekend. While President Trump’s suggestion of lowering the tariffs against China from 145% to 80% was a step, stocks didn’t react much. It’s still a very high rate and probably not what investors wanted to hear, and thus the market ultimately closed lower on Friday.

The S&P 500’s recent trading behavior reflects the uncertainty. In the last seven trading days, movement has been muted, a drastic change from the wide-ranging days of early April (see chart below). Of late, any optimistic news gets investors a little upbeat, but the enthusiasm fades quickly. 

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF S&P 500. The last seven days are narrow range days, unlike the wide-ranging days from early April.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes

Sector performance isn’t showing clear dominance either. On strong days, Consumer Discretionary, Technology, and Communication Services take the lead. On weaker days, defensive areas like Utilities, Energy, and Consumer Staples step in. This flip-flopping suggests investors lack conviction.

Mid and Small-Caps: Gaining Momentum

The S&P 400 Mid Cap Index ($MID) and S&P 600 Small Cap Index ($SML) posted five straight weeks of gains. This was picked up from the Market Summary page (Equities panel, weekly streak column). This warrants a closer look at these two asset groups.

Mid-cap stocks are showing slight signs of recovery. In the weekly chart of the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index, the index is approaching a near-term resistance level (blue dashed line), the percentage of stocks trading above their 200-day moving average is trending higher, and there’s no consistent move in the Advance-Decline Percent or Advance-Decline Volume Percent.

FIGURE 2. WEEKLY CHART OF S&P 400 MID-CAP INDEX. There are signs of the start of an upside move, but far from confirmed. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The weekly chart of the S&P 600 Small Cap Index mirrors the behavior in $MID—$SML is trading above its 10-week simple moving average, the percentage of stocks trading above its 200-day moving average is rising, and there’s a slight increase in the Volume Advance-Decline Percent.

FIGURE 3. WEEKLY CHART OF S&P 600 SMALL CAP INDEX. Similar to the chart in Figure 2, small-cap stocks are also showing slight signs of a potential rally, although it’s a long way away from confirming an uptrend. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Mid- and small-cap stocks didn’t participate much in the large-cap Mag 7 bull rally. Maybe things are beginning to look better for these stocks, especially if large-cap growth stocks get bogged down by tariffs.

Looking at the three-month performance across the S&P Sector ETFs, Utilities and Consumer Staples are the best performers, followed by Real Estate and Industrials.

FIGURE 4. THREE-MONTH PERFCHART OF S&P SECTOR ETFS. Consumer Staples and Utilities are the top performers over the last three months, followed by Real Estate and Industrials.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

If your portfolio leans heavily toward mid- and small-cap stocks, it may be worth monitoring the performance of these groups. These stocks can rally quickly, but can also fade just as quickly. If you’ve been holding on to those stocks for over a decade, a big upside move could offer an opportunity to take profits or re-evaluate your portfolio.

The Bottom Line: Be Prepared

Next week promises a slew of market-moving news: earnings reports, trade deals, and key inflation data. It may be best to stay on the sidelines until the market digests the news. However, if you see a chance to take profits or reduce risk, don’t let them slip away.

End-of-Week Wrap-Up

  • S&P 500 down 0.47% on the week, at 5659.91, Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.16% on the week at 41,249.38; Nasdaq Composite down 0.27% on the week at 17,928.92.
  • $VIX down 3.44% on the week, closing at 21.90.
  • Best performing sector for the week: Industrials
  • Worst performing sector for the week: Health Care
  • Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Palantir Technologies, Inc. (PLTR); Duolingo Inc. (DUOL); Robinhood Markets Inc. (HOOD); MicroStrategy (MSTR); Applovin Corp. (APP)

On the Radar Next Week

  • Earnings season continues with several small and mid-cap companies reporting.
  • April Consumer Price Index (CPI)
  • April Producer Price Index (PPI)
  • April Retail Sales
  • Fed speeches from Powell, Jefferson, Daly, and others.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

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