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Are We in a Recession? Predictions, Signs and Strategies

Investing 13 Mins Read

‘Never miss out on an opportunity like a recession’ — Jack Welch, former chairman and CEO of General Electric.

US President Donald Trump’s plans to overhaul the current global trade structure through sweeping tariffs have once again ignited recession fears. With both businesses and consumers considering pulling back on spending if costs rise, many economists are forecasting a higher risk of a deep economic downturn.

Goldman Sachs’ (NYSE:GS) seesaw recession predictions on April 9 are a clear indication that much remains unclear when it comes to the possible implications for the US economy. That day, the firm forecasted a GDP loss of 1 percent in 2025 and a 65 percent probability of a recession in the next 12 months.

However, within an hour, Trump announced a 90 day pause on his reciprocal tariffs and the group returned to its previous non-recession baseline forecast, with GDP growth of 0.5 percent and a 45 percent probability of recession.

Goldman Sachs isn’t alone in its reluctance to say a recession is in the cards. During an April 14 Fox Business interview, Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) CEO Brian Moynihan said his firm does not expect to see a recession in 2025, although he acknowledged that BoA did lower its GDP forecast for the year and that continued uncertainty around tariffs could change its outlook.

However, others believe the country has already entered a recession.

“I think we’re very close, if not in, a recession now,” Blackrock (NYSE:BLK) CEO Larry Fink told CNBC during an April 11 interview. “I think you’re going to see, across the board, just a slowdown until there’s more certainty. And we now have a 90-day pause on the reciprocal tariffs — that means longer, more elevated uncertainty.”

So — are we in a recession? Even though nailing down an answer is tricky, investors educate themselves on what a recession is, how long they last and what strategies may work well during these difficult economic periods.

In this article

    What is a recession?

    When a country’s economic activity experiences a serious and persistent decline over an extended period, often over two consecutive quarters, economists often call it a recession. Recessions involve a broad array of economic sectors, not just a decline among one or two industries.

    Some of the key indicators of a recession include rising unemployment levels, negative GDP, stock market selloffs and falling manufacturing data, as well as declining consumer confidence as evidenced by dropping retail sales.

    Answering the question of whether we’re in a recession is difficult because so many factors are at play — while one expert might weigh GDP declines heavily in their analysis, another might feel other elements are more important.

    Watch the video from mid-2023 below to get a sense of why getting a consensus on whether we’re in a recession can be tough.

    Experts Rick Rule, Adrian Day and Mike Larson explain why it’s hard to get an answer on whether the US is in a recession.

    What causes a recession?

    Forbes lists a number of catalysts that can spark a recession: sudden economic shock, excessive debt (think the US mortgage debt crisis that fueled the Great Recession in 2008), asset bubbles, uncontrolled inflation (which leads central banks to raise interest rates, making it more expensive to do business or pay down debts), runaway deflation and technological changes. Tariffs have also historically been linked with recession.

    How can tariffs cause a recession?

    Tariffs can cause a recession through a domino effect of increased costs, supply chain disruptions, inflationary pressures and investment uncertainty — all of which can bring about massive layoffs in critical sectors of the economy.

    Economic historians, such as Dr. Phillip Magness of the Independent Institute, have pointed to the worsening of the Great Depression following the passing of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 as offering a potent warning about the potential outcome of the sweeping tariffs being enacted under US President Trump.

    Watch the video below to learn more about the potential for tariffs to spark a recession and why investors are looking to gold for safety.

    Magness said there’s still a chance to avoid a recession if Trump reverses course on his tariff policy.

    Are there signs before a recession?

    What are the telltale signs that warn of a recession in advance? Much like accurately forecasting the weather, making any sort of economic forecast is difficult. But there are certain signals economists look out for.

    Aside from the previously mentioned slumping GDP and falling copper prices, one of the most prominent harbingers of a looming recession is an inverted bond yield curve.

    “The bond market can help predict the direction of the economy and can be useful in crafting your investment strategy,” Investopedia states. “This metric — while not a guarantee of future economic behavior — has a strong track record.”

    In addition, declining unemployment figures, shrinking industrial output, falling retail sales and dramatic stock market selloffs are often considered classic indicators of a potential recession.

    Will there be a recession in 2025?

    Forecasting recessions can be tricky. There are extenuating circumstances that may allow for a reversal of fortunes before a deeper recession takes hold, but in the meantime many historical recession signals are currently flashing red.

    Newsweek has cited a number of US economists who identified five critical recession indicators on display, including declining consumer confidence, increasing credit card late payments and defaults, higher business and trade policy uncertainty, and rising inflation expectations.

    ‘The layoff cycle is indeed accelerating into 2025,’ she said. ‘The biggest determination of prices (for goods and services) that can or cannot be paid is what your paycheck is. What we’re seeing is average weekly earnings have stagnated starting in December, and have begun to fall on an inflation adjusted basis.’

    DiMartino Booth sees the central bank potentially cutting rates four to five times in 2025.

    Is Warren Buffett predicting a recession?

    Warren Buffett is not known for his direct forecasts. In fact, he’s likely to say, “Nothing is sure tomorrow, nothing is sure next year and nothing is ever sure, either in markets or in business forecasts, or in anything else.” For that reason, his investment decisions are often read like tea leaves by market watchers looking for signs on where to invest.

    So when the Oracle of Omaha called tariffs ‘an act of war to some degree’ during a March 2025 CBS interview, it was not a good sign. Market watchers will certainly be on the lookout for new clues when Buffet speaks to shareholders at Berkshire Hathaway’s (NYSE:BRK.A,NYSE:BRK.B) annual meeting in May.

    Another move by Buffett that’s being interpreted as a recession signal? Berkshire Hathaway’s decision to sell off of US$134 billion in equity positions in 2024 in order to beef up its cash holdings, which came in at a record US334 billion as of March 2025.

    How long do recessions last?

    Recessions are considered a part of the normal expansions and contractions of the business cycle.

    While not as catastrophic as depressions, recessions can last for several months and even years, with significant consequences for governments, companies, workers and investors. Each of the four global recessions since World War II lasted about one year.

    That said, there have been a few short-lived recessions in the US, including the 2020 pandemic recession. Stock markets around the world crashed at the onset of the COVID-19 outbreak. A record 20.5 million jobs were lost in the US alone in April 2020 as the nation’s unemployment rate reached 14.7 percent.

    The Fed responded by cutting interest rates, and the US federal government issued trillions of dollars in financial aid to laid-off workers and impacted businesses. By October 2020, US GDP was up 33.1 percent, marking an end to the recession.

    What sectors are hardest hit by a recession?

    Businesses often tighten their belts during recessions by postponing expansion plans, reducing worker hours and benefits or laying off employees. Those same workers are the consumers who play a vital role in the strength of a nation’s economic activity.

    With less disposable income, consumers stop spending on large appliances, vehicles, new homes, evenings out and vacations. The focus shifts to low-priced necessities, food and medical needs. Declining consumer spending and demand for goods and services pushes the economy into a deeper recession, resulting in more layoffs and rising unemployment. Small- and medium-sized business owners may even find themselves unable to operate entirely.

    Typically, retail, manufacturing, restaurants, technology, travel and entertainment are hit the hardest during a recession. The real estate and mortgage lending sectors may also feel the pain.

    As the recession worsens, some homeowners may not be able to pay their mortgages and could face defaults, which can bring further downward pressure on real estate prices. Those still shopping for a home or new car may find that banks have instituted much tighter lending policies on mortgages and car loans.

    Meanwhile, investors can lose money as their stock holdings and real estate assets lose their value. Retirement savings accounts linked to the stock market can also suffer.

    All of these forces can contribute to a deflationary environment that leads central banks to cut interest rates in an effort to stimulate the economy out of a recession.

    How to prepare for a recession?

    There is no perfect answer for how to invest during a recession, and no stock remains recession-proof. But for those who know how to practice due diligence through fundamental analysis, recessions do offer an opportunity to pick quality stocks at a discount.

    “The stock market is the only store where when things go on sale, everyone runs out the door. You don’t want to be one of those people,” said Shawn Cruz, head trading strategist at TD Ameritrade. “So if you have a long term focus and some specific names you’re looking at, this is a good time to pick up some quality shares for your portfolio.”

    It’s better to look at well-established publicly traded companies with strong balance sheets and minimal debt that still have the ability to generate cash and pay dividends. Companies to avoid include those with high debt loads and little cashflow, as they have a difficult time managing operating costs and debt payments during recessions.

    Danielle DiMartino Booth advises investors to watch the data closely if they want to stay ahead of the curve, particularly payroll levels, layoff announcements, bankruptcies and store closures.

    Industry matters, too. As mentioned, real estate, retail, manufacturing, restaurants, technology, travel and entertainment are hit the hardest during a recession. On the other hand, stocks in the consumer staples (food and beverage, household goods, alcohol and tobacco) and healthcare (biotech and pharmaceutical) sectors tend to do well in recessionary environments.

    Inventors can further mitigate the risks that a recession brings by building a diversified portfolio that considers stocks across varying sectors and geographic regions. Rather than investing in individual stocks, exchange-traded funds with low management fees are another way to spread risk. The Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (ARCA:VDC) and the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (ARCA:XLP) are two examples to consider.

    Should I wait to invest until after a recession?

    This question brings us back to the quote from General Electric’s Welch that’s cited at the beginning of this article. For long-term investors who understand the popular adage, “buy low, sell high,” a recession and its impact on share prices offers up those ‘buy low’ opportunities. That’s because all things come to an end, even recessions, and when that happens those who bought the dip will be well positioned to benefit from the rebound.

    That said, due diligence never goes out of style. Not all companies will make it through a market downturn unscathed. To truly see returns from this investment strategy it’s critical to look for companies with strong balance sheets, experienced management and a history of performing well in bear markets. Opting for revenue-generating and dividend-paying stocks over growth stocks during a recession is another smart play.

    Overall, experts advise that it’s not necessary to avoid investing during a recession.

    “While (recessions) can be challenging for returns and growing wealth, we also see countercyclical rallies and the market is always forward-looking, so the keys are to remain fully invested, not be whipsawed by short-term market gyrations and to keep (focused) on your long-term goals,” Rajesh Nakadi, head of investments of the Global Family Office at BNY Mellon Wealth Management, told Forbes.

    Danielle DiMartino Booth advises investors to focus on companies’ ability to maintain dividends and cash flow during this period, meaning defensive plays that pay dividends and are able to increase their payrolls are a worth a look.

    What assets can hold their value in a deep recession?

    For long-term investors looking to ride out the worst recessions, stocks and high-yield bonds are best avoided. Safer assets that have historically performed well during recessions include government bonds, managed futures, gold and cash.

    It should be noted that while 10 year US Treasury bonds have an excellent reputation as a reliable safe haven asset, nothing is without risk. In early April 2025, following another round of tariffs announced by Trump, an unprecedented number of sellers, including foreign governments, ditched their US bond holdings, resulting in rising bond yields. Although yields fell a few days later, uncertainty in the bond market remains.

    “There is clearly still a lot of concern over this highly unusual rise in Treasury yields at a time of equity market weakness and global concern over recession,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at Bank of Montreal. “Notably, the backup in yields was mostly driven by rising real yields and not higher inflation premiums … indicating a more fundamental drop in demand.”

    If you’ve parked your dollars in actual dollars, i.e. cash, instead of the stock market or bonds, the value is not being erased by declining stock prices. The ‘cash is king’ mantra speaks to the importance of keeping liquid assets on hand during a recession.

    Along that same vein, gold has earned its safe-haven status because it is a physical asset that holds its value and can be easily liquidated.

    One last thought — don’t move all your wealth into gold or cash. A diversified portfolio is still the best hedge against a recession.

    Which stocks do well after a recession?

    Once the economy is in the recovery stage and consumer confidence begins to improve, the best performing stocks in the market tend to be tied to the technology, financial, consumer discretionary, industrial, material and energy sectors.

    The consumer discretionary (i.e. cars and appliances), material and industrial segments “are known as cyclicals, because they are closely tied to the fortunes of the economy,” the Royal Bank of Canada (TSX:RY,NYSE:RY) states. The bank explains that once demand improves, manufacturers will begin using up their inventory and will in turn “need to order metal, chemicals and other materials to create more goods to sell.”

    Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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    Investing

    Trump Takes Aim at China with Deep-Sea Mining Nod, Looks to Boost Critical Minerals

    Investing 5 Mins Read

    Continuing his administration’s push toward reducing US reliance on Chinese mineral imports, President Donald Trump has signed a new executive order to fast track processes for deep-sea mining.

    The release highlights nickel, cobalt, copper, manganese, titanium and rare earths as strategic minerals key to both national security and economic prosperity, saying that deep-sea mining may provide increased access.

    The April 24 announcement from Trump came a day after Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum outlined potential plans for the government to invest in US companies that mine and process critical minerals.

    Speaking at a conference put together by the Hamm Institute for American Energy, Burgum said there may be a need for “equity investment in each of these companies that’s taking on China in critical minerals.”

    He discussed a multifaceted strategy that could include the creation of a sovereign wealth fund, government-backed sovereign risk insurance and a national stockpile of critical minerals.

    “We should be taking some of our balance sheet and making investments,” Burgum told reporters last week. “Why wouldn’t the wealthiest country in the world have the biggest sovereign wealth fund?”

    What’s at stake for the US?

    These efforts to reposition America’s mineral supply chain come amid the country’s escalating trade war with China, which has tightened its grip on the global critical minerals market.

    Currently, China produces or refines a dominant share of 20 key raw materials used in essential technologies — from semiconductors and electric vehicle batteries to missile guidance systems and wind turbines.

    According to the US Geological Survey, the US was 100 percent reliant on imports for 15 critical minerals in 2024, and approximately 70 percent of its rare earths came from China the year before.

    China’s latest retaliation — a new wave of export controls on rare earth elements in response to US tariffs — has only intensified concerns about supply chain vulnerability.

    “We have to get back in the game,” Burgum urged in the same conference.

    “It’s not just drill, baby, drill. It’s mine, baby, mine. If we don’t do that as a country, we will not be successful. We will literally be at the mercy of others that are controlling our supply chains.”

    Building a domestic safety net for America

    To offset both economic and geopolitical risks, Burgum laid out three key proposals under consideration:

    1. Sovereign wealth fund — A mechanism to allow the US to take equity stakes in domestic mining and processing firms, particularly those struggling to compete with Chinese state-backed entities.
    2. Sovereign risk insurance — A federal insurance program to reimburse companies in the event that a future administration cancels approved projects.

    Burgum asserted that the three combined would put the US “in the game around critical minerals,” and said the administration is currently “working on all three.”

    Opening the ocean floor to mining

    Trump’s executive order directs federal agencies to expedite permitting under the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act and the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act. In addition to that, it instructs agencies to identify mineral-rich regions, facilitate exploration and map seabed areas for priority development.

    Notably, the move bypasses the ongoing regulatory negotiations at the International Seabed Authority (ISA), a United Nations body tasked with setting global standards for ocean floor mining.

    “The United States has a core national security and economic interest in maintaining leadership in deep sea science and technology and seabed mineral resources,” Trump states in the order.

    Officials say US waters hold over 1 billion metric tons of seabed mineral deposits, including copper, cobalt, manganese and nickel — essential materials for renewable energy technologies and military applications.

    However, the move has been met with sharp criticism from environmental groups and international regulators, which have long warned of the untested ecological risks of deep-sea mining.

    “We condemn this administration’s attempt to launch this destructive industry on the high seas in the Pacific by bypassing the United Nations process,” said Greenpeace USA’s Arlo Hemphill in a statement.

    “This is an insult to multilateralism and a slap in the face to all the countries and millions of people around the world who oppose this dangerous industry,’ he continues in the April 25 release.

    The ISA, created under the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea — which the US has not ratified — has been working to establish a regulatory framework before any commercial deep-sea mining begins.

    It is still deliberating rules on how to balance environmental concerns with mineral exploitation, with ISA Secretary-General Leticia Carvalho expressing hope that a global consensus can be reached by the end of 2025.

    Mining companies mobilize amid US critical minerals push

    Mining and energy companies are moving swiftly to capitalize on the Trump administration’s push to expand domestic production of rare earths and other critical minerals.

    MP Materials (NYSE:MP), the operator of the only active rare earths mine in the US, reported a surge in interest from manufacturers after China imposed new export restrictions. The company has halted shipments of unprocessed ore to China, citing steep tariffs, and is ramping up efforts to process materials domestically.

    NioCorp Developments (NASDAQ:NB) has welcomed the White House’s call to streamline permitting, which coincides with its plans to accelerate its Nebraska-based Elk Creek critical minerals project.

    In the lithium space, oil giants like ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) and Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) are clashing over production rights in Arkansas’ Smackover Formation, one of the country’s richest potential lithium sources.

    Exxon subsidiary Saltwerx recently won regulatory approval to develop a 56,000 acre lithium unit, a move it said could unlock the domestic industry and bolster US energy security.

    At sea, The Metals Company (NASDAQ:TMC) is seeking permits under a decades-old US law to mine polymetallic nodules from the Pacific seabed, pointing to renewed political will.

    Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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    Politics

    An American father’s plea: President Trump, please bring my son and the other hostages home from Gaza

    Politics 4 Mins Read
    NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!

    It has been 100 days since the new U.S. administration took office amid a clear policy of ‘America First.’ 

    But for American families like mine, families whose loved ones are still held hostage by Hamas for over 560 days, we should have already seen results from this policy. My son, Itay Chen, a dual U.S.-Israeli citizen, remains in captivity. So do four other Americans: Edan Alexander, Omer Neutra, Judy and Gadi Weinstein. Every day that passes without their return is another day of anguish, uncertainty, and pain.

    As a father, I wake up every morning hoping this will be the day I get the call from the White House telling me my son is coming home. When President Donald Trump won the election, I felt a renewed sense of hope. I believed that his leadership, strength, and personal concern for American hostages would lead to real movement. And I deeply thank President Trump for demanding the release of all hostages even before his inauguration that led to the release of 33 hostages in Gaza, including two U.S. citizens. 

    I believe he cares profoundly, but the truth is, the first 100 days of this administration have not delivered what the president himself demanded – releasing all of the U.S. hostages in Gaza and sending a clear message that holding U.S. hostages anywhere is a liability, not an asset. 

    This is not a critique made in anger. It is a plea made in desperation. I understand that diplomacy is complex. I know that the negotiations around hostages—especially in a war zone and involving multiple international actors— require discretion, patience, and nuance. But I also know that time is not on our side. As the weeks pass, the fear grows that the window to bring our loved ones back is narrowing and they will disappear forever.

    We have seen this administration act boldly in other arenas to implement the America First policy, particularly when it comes to economic policy. Tariffs and financial pressure have already been deployed as tools of American strength. 

    Why not apply similar pressure now to release the U.S. hostages? Instead of the administration being proactive, U.S. families like mine, out of despair, are taking matters into our own hands. We’ve been lobbying Congress to impose direct financial sanctions against Hamas, pressuring banks and financial institutions to freeze assets and urging stricter enforcement of existing measures. Just this month, U.S. families filed a lawsuit against Bashar Masri, an American businessman charging that he provided assistance in constructing infrastructure that allowed Hamas militants to carry out their cross-border rampage, including killing 45 U.S. citizens. We’ve urged the Administration, the Department of Justice and the Treasury to expand these efforts. 

    The administration can, and must, do more. Americans – children, fathers, sisters – are all still being held in underground tunnels by a terrorist organization, in conditions we can barely imagine. The previous administration told the American families the way to release our family members would be via Israel as a proxy. Though the plan did not work, the Biden administration kept doubling down on the same plan despite not getting the expected results. 

    The Trump administration inherited this policy and should re-evaluate the game plan. President Trump is an extremely gifted negotiator. His team successfully released several U.S. citizens from war zones with direct negotiations. As such, why is President Trump not directly negotiating for the release of U.S. citizens in Gaza, but instead using third parties such as Qatar to negotiate for the release of U.S. citizens? In January, we saw what the president’s direct involvement can do to release hostages. The U.S. has a legal obligation to get its citizens out of harm’s way and if the proxy is not capable of releasing them, then the U.S. must find a different path to release its citizens.  

    Trump administration officials have sent a clear message to the world that American lives are not bargaining chips. This administration has the opportunity to reinforce that principle—to lead with strength and show that ‘America First’ means never leaving Americans behind.

    I will not lose hope. My faith in America’s power and promise is unbroken. But that hope needs to be matched with action. For Itay. For the other hostages. For the credibility – and the soul – of a nation that is seeking to reset the table with the world based on a true ‘America First’ policy. What a victory it would be if President Trump, in his upcoming visit to the Middle East, will bring on his plane back home the 5 U.S. hostages from Gaza.

    This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

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    Vulnerable House Dem rakes in thousands of dollars from Pelosi despite past criticism

    Politics 4 Mins Read

    Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, D-Wash., described Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., during her 2022 campaign as unrepresentative of American voters, but campaign finance reports revealed she collected at least $31,000 from the former House speaker and her political action committees during her three years in Congress. 

    ‘I want to make my position clear that I will not vote for Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House,’ Perez told The Columbian in 2022. ‘I look around, I look at my community, and I don’t see leadership in Congress looking like that.’

    Despite the moderate Democrat rejecting Pelosi’s leadership on the campaign trail, campaign finance reports show that since she took office in 2022, Gluesenkamp Perez and her Super PAC, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez Campaign Defense Fund, have accepted at least $31,000 from Pelosi and her affiliated Super PACs, including PAC to the Future and Nancy Pelosi for Congress.

    According to U.S. Census data, the $31,000 represents more than one third of the median household income for residents in Washington’s third congressional district, which includes Clark County and Vancouver, Washington, the district’s largest city.

    ‘We need more and more normal people to run for Congress. We need more people that work in the trades,’ Gluesenkamp Perez told Politico in 2023, as she described a Democratic Party out of touch with middle-class Americans. 

    ‘Just like her pal Nancy Pelosi, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez will say and do anything to get elected,’ Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC dedicated to maintaining the Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, spokeswoman Torunn Sinclair, told Fox News Digital. 

    ‘That’s not a quality Washington State families want in their congresswoman.’

    Gluesenkamp Perez was first elected to represent Washington in the U.S. House of Representatives in 2022 and won re-election in 2024, narrowly defeating her Republican challenger, Joe Kent, for the second time in two House cycles. 

    The Washington congresswoman is considered one of the most vulnerable House Democrats in 2026, just as she was in 2024 after winning her 2022 race by less than two points. Republicans are likely to target her seat as an opportunity to widen their majority in the House. 

    While Republicans slam Gluesenkamp Perez for flip-flopping on Pelosi, she is also facing the fury of her own party as hundreds of Democratic constituents protested at her town hall on Thursday. 

    According to local reporting, including KGW News, protesters held up signs that read, ‘Shame on you,’ and chanted, ‘Vote her out,’ as Gluesenkamp Perez explained why she voted in support of the Safeguarding American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act. 

    The SAVE Act, which passed in the House earlier this month, requires voters to obtain proof of citizenship in-person before they register for a federal election and will remove noncitizens from voter rolls. It has been widely rejected by Democrats since its conception, and 208 House Democrats voted against the bill. 

    ‘I do not support noncitizens voting in American elections – and that’s common sense to folks in Southwest Washington. Voting in our nation’s elections is a sacred right belonging only to American citizens, and my vote for the SAVE Act reflects that principle,’ Gluesenkamp Perez said after voting in support of the SAVE ACT, despite facing vocal opposition from constituents on Thursday for doing so. 

    Gluesenkamp Perez also faced disapproval from Washington state Democrats for voting to censure Rep. Al Green, D-Texas, after he shouted and shook his cane during President Donald Trump’s joint address to Congress earlier this year.  

    Gluesenkamp Perez’s campaign did not respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment by deadline. 

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    Trump marks 100-days in office embroiled in trade battles, deadly wars and hard pressed deals

    Politics 7 Mins Read

    President Donald Trump’s second term has taken the world by storm in his first 100 days, leaving allies and adversaries scrambling to respond to new U.S. tariffs, stalled peace negotiations and hardball diplomacy from the White House.

    On the campaign trail, he pledged to hit allies and foes alike with massive tariffs, end Russia’s war in Ukraine within 24-hours and threatened that ‘all hell’ would break out if all hostages were not freed from the clutches of Hamas in Gaza by the time he entered the Oval Office.

    While Trump has been able to make good on some of his promises, other ambitions remain unmet. Here’s what Trump has accomplished and what challenges remain:

    Where Russia’s war in Ukraine stands

    Trump last week conceded that his pledge to end the three-year-old war in Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office was ‘figurative,’ acknowledging it was never a realistic goal. The conflict has claimed a reported 1 million casualties.

    ‘I said that as an exaggeration,’ he told reporters. 

    While Trump has faced criticism over his ability to bring Russian President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table, his team — led by Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Secretary of State Antony Rubio — has made some headway, securing a 30-day ceasefire protecting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

    But Putin has so far refused to enter any other brokered agreements, despite Kyiv’s willingness to play ball even after the historic Oval Office blow-up between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in February.

    Though Trump appeared to hold a grudge against Zelenskyy after Ukraine rejected a proposed mineral deal — even blaming him in part for Russia’s illegal invasion — relations between the two leaders appeared to improve over the weekend. Trump also set a new ultimatum for Putin, issuing a deadline to reach a ceasefire deal.

    ‘Two weeks or less,’ Trump told reporters Sunday, though he later added a bit more time would be acceptable. ‘We’ll see what happens over the next few days. We’ll probably learn a lot.’

    Trump said he was ‘surprised and disappointed’ after Putin last week levied a barrage of missiles at Ukraine’s capital city of Kyiv in a strike that killed 12 civilians and injured nearly 100 more.

    ‘I want him to stop shooting, sit down and sign a deal,’ Trump said in reference to Putin. ‘We have the confines of a deal, I believe, and I want him to sign it and be done with it and just go back to life.’

    Trump has not said how or whether he will hold Putin accountable if he doesn’t agree to a ceasefire and the White House has not responded to Fox News Digital’s repeated questions regarding the issue.

    Gaza ceasefire

    Before entering office, Trump repeatedly threatened Hamas that ‘all hell’ would break out if they didn’t return all hostages by the time he arrived at the White House. 

    But the Palestinian terror group has ignored his threats and rejected Trump’s February proposal to turn the Gaza Strip into the ‘Riviera of the Middle East,’ saying it would adhere to a ceasefire agreement brokered between the terrorist organization and Israel, mediated by the U.S., Qatar and Egypt. 

    Trump has not hit Hamas, nor have his negotiations to release hostages looked all that different from his predecessor’s.  

    The first phase of what was intended to be a three-phase ceasefire saw the return of 33 hostages taken by Hamas, the majority of whom were abducted in the Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel, as well as the release of 1,800 Palestinian prisoners held by Jerusalem. 

    But 59 hostages remain in Gaza, including American-Israeli Edan Alexander, and hopes of a second phase collapsed after negotiations stalled on terms surrounding future hostage releases, and in March Israel reignited military operations in the Gaza Strip.

    A Qatari official on Sunday said the main hiccup in securing a ceasefire following the latest round of talks last week is that Israel has not presented a clear solution to end the war in exchange for hostage releases, Reuters reported. 

    Trump on Friday said he pushed Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to reopen aid corridors into Gaza, which have been blocked since March 2, in order to allow food and medicine to reach Palestinians, though humanitarian corridors have not yet been opened. 

    Iran nuclear agreement

    Trump on Sunday said he believes a deal to end Iran’s nuclear program can be achieved ‘without having to start dropping bombs all over the place.’

    Details on nuclear negotiations between the U.S. and Iran in Oman on Saturday, in which the third round of talks were held, remain nil, though Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reportedly told Iranian state media they were ‘very serious and work-focused.’ 

    Araghchi described the hours-long talks as having finally ‘entered into deeper and more detailed discussions,’ though no specifics of the negotiations have been released. 

    It remains unclear if the Trump administration is pursuing a halt to Tehran’s nuclear advancement or a complete disarmament arrangement, which would see the destruction of Iran’s centrifuge facilities and its stockpiles of near-weapons-grade enriched uranium. 

    It also remains unclear how much time the president will allow for the negotiations to carry on. 

    Relations with China deteriorate

    Relations between the U.S. and China have hit a level of animosity not seen between the two superpowers since Washington normalized ties with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in the 1970s. 

    The initial U.S.-China trade war started during Trump’s first term, in which he hit China with 25% tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese goods in April 2018.

    Beijing responded by slapping reciprocal tariffs on $50 billion worth of U.S. goods, mostly targeting U.S. agricultural products worth some $16.5 billion — a trade war that saw the loss of a quarter of a million U.S. jobs by January 2021, according to the U.S.-China Business Council (USCBC).

    From the campaign trail, Trump threatened to hit China with 60% tariffs — which he nearly did in early April when he announced an additional 34% tariff on top of the existing taxes already in place. 

    But what had already sent geopolitical shockwaves and sparked near-immediate market concerns was further escalated just over a week later when Trump ratcheted up tariffs on Beijing to 145%. 

    China has responded by hitting Washington with its own 125% reciprocal tariffs on U.S. imports and, according to a Bloomberg report on Monday, cargo supply shipments have already dropped by 60%.

    Americans are expected to begin feeling the pains of the trade war come mid-May.

    Trump said last week he had reached some 200 trade deals with countries affected by his sweeping tariffs — measures that hit nearly every U.S. trading partner, including longtime allies. He paused the tariffs for 90 days earlier this month following intense backlash.

    The status of trading relations with U.S. partners remains unclear, along with whether the administration will implement the blanket tariffs on those nations come July.

    The 25% tariffs on steel, aluminum and imported vehicles remain in effect.

    The White House did not directly respond to Fox News Digital’s questions regarding next steps Trump will takes when it comes to handling thus far unresolved conflict in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip.

    A White House spokesman instead said, ‘President Trump inherited widespread foreign conflicts and a weak standing on the world stage from Joe Biden. Now, America is strong again, hostages are free from Gaza, Marc Fogel and Ksenia Karelina are home, hundreds of Houthi and other terrorists have been eliminated, and we are closer to peace than ever before. 

    ‘This President will never get the credit he deserves for his vast foreign policy accomplishments, but Americans know they are freer and safer under his leadership,’ the spokesman added.

    This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

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    100 days of injunctions, trials and ‘Teflon Don’: Trump second term meets its biggest tests in court

    Politics 5 Mins Read

    President Donald Trump has spent the first 100 days of his second White House term signing a flurry of executive orders aimed at delivering on his policy priorities: slashing government spending, cracking down on illegal immigration and eliminating many diversity and equity initiatives enacted under the Biden administration.

    The more than 150 executive orders Trump has signed far outpace those of his predecessors. But they have also triggered a torrent of lawsuits seeking to block or pause his actions, teeing up a high-stakes showdown over how far Trump can push his Article II powers before the courts can or should intervene. 

    It’s a looming constitutional clash spinning like a top through the federal courts; a blink-and-you’ll-miss-it set of hearings and appeals and emergency orders that deal with weighty issues of due process and First Amendment protections guaranteed by the Constitution. 

    Trump’s critics argue the fast-paced strategy is meant to confuse and overwhelm his opponents. His supporters counter that it allows him to strike with maximum precision and sidestep a clunky, slow-moving Congress as the president pursues his top priorities.

    In his first 100 days, administration lawyers have gone to bat in courtrooms across the country to defend Trump’s early executive orders and halt a wave of lawsuits and emergency restraining orders aimed at blocking them. 

    Trump, meanwhile, has steadfastly maintained that he would ‘never defy’ the Supreme Court as recently as in an interview last week. 

    ‘I’m a big believer in the Supreme Court and have a lot of respect for the justices,’ Trump told Time Magazine.  

    Critics say he already has.

    ‘The second Trump administration has taken the guardrails off of the norms that historically governed the rule of law and is undertaking steps to enhance the perceived power of the executive branch to the detriment of the two other co-equal branches,’ Mark Zaid, an attorney who has gone toe-to-toe with the Trump administration in several court cases this year, told Fox News Digitial.

    ‘These actions threaten the fundamental notion of our democracy, particularly as the Administration seeks to eliminate due process protections in a quest for power.’

    The biggest fights so far have centered around the Trump administration’s use of the Alien Enemies Act, a 1798 wartime law, to deport certain migrants to El Salvador. Another major case to watch will be challenges to Trump’s executive order ending birthright citizenship. 

    Two separate federal judges, in D.C. and Maryland, have suggested they could move to begin possible contempt proceedings against some Trump officials for refusing to comply with their orders.

    In one case, a judge issued a scathing rebuke against Trump officials for failing to return a Maryland resident and alleged gang member who was wrongfully deported to El Salvador this year. Separately, U.S. District Judge James Boasberg said there was probable cause to find Trump administration officials in criminal contempt for defying his order to return deportation flights to El Salvador on March 15.

    The Trump administration has fought back, questioning the authority of lower courts to stop his agenda. The Supreme Court agreed to hear oral arguments on a challenge to some of the nationwide injunctions, beginning with a birthright citizenship case in early May.

    Meanwhile, White House officials have railed against the ‘activist’ judges who they say have overstepped and are acting with a political agenda to block Trump’s policies. They’ve blasted judges for pausing Trump’s transgender military ban, reinstating USAID programs and blocking Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) from accessing federal offices.

    Some congressional allies have threatened impeachment against judges who defy Trump, but so far Congress has not advanced any impeachment articles.

    White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt declined this week to rule out the arrest of federal judges, including Supreme Court justices.

    Asked at a press briefing about the hypothetical on Monday, Leavitt referred the matter to the Justice Department but said a judge in New Mexico was arrested in ‘a clear-cut case of obstruction.’

    ‘And so anyone who is breaking the law or obstructing federal law enforcement officials from doing their jobs is putting themselves at risk of being prosecuted, absolutely,’ she said.

    Jonathan Turley, a law professor and Fox News contributor, told Fox News Digital that he sees Trump’s early actions as getting ahead of the 2026 primaries and moving with maximum force to implement his agenda.

    Trump ‘knows that he has no alternative but to push ahead on all fronts if he is going to make meaningful progress on his promised reforms,’ Turley told Fox News. 

    ‘The midterm elections are looming in 2026. If the Democrats retake the House, he knows that he can expect investigations, impeachments and obstruction. That means that he has to expedite these cases and establish his lines of authority in areas ranging from migration to the markets.’

    This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

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    Revenge porn bill backed by Melania Trump heads to president’s desk after overwhelming House vote

    Politics 4 Mins Read

    The House on Monday overwhelmingly passed a bill backed by first lady Melania Trump that cracks down on the posting of explicit images, including ‘deep fake’ nudes generated of people by artificial intelligence, without consent. 

    The Tools to Address Known Exploitation by Immobilizing Technological Deepfakes on Websites and Networks – known as the TAKE IT DOWN Act – was approved by a 409-2 vote and now heads to President Donald Trump’s desk. 

    The measure ‘generally prohibits the nonconsensual online publication of intimate visual depictions of individuals, both authentic and computer-generated, and requires certain online platforms to promptly remove such depictions upon receiving notice of their existence,’ according to the bill summary. 

    It specifically prohibits online publication of ‘intimate visual depictions’ of an adult subject ‘where publication is intended to cause or does cause harm to the subject, and where the depiction was published without the subject’s consent or, in the case of an authentic depiction, was created or obtained under circumstances where the adult had a reasonable expectation of privacy,’ as well as ‘a minor subject where publication is intended to abuse or harass the minor or to arouse or gratify the sexual desire of any person.’ 

    ‘Violators are subject to mandatory restitution and criminal penalties, including prison, a fine, or both,’ according to the bill summary. ‘Threats to publish intimate visual depictions of a subject are similarly prohibited under the bill and subject to criminal penalties.’ 

    The legislation also requires platforms to establish a process where victims of revenge porn can notify them of the existence of images and request removal. The bill says platforms then have 48 hours to remove those images.

    Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, introduced the TAKE IT DOWN Act in January, and it was approved by the upper chamber in February. It was brought to the House by Rep. Maria Salazar, R-Fla.

    Two Republicans – Reps. Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Eric Burlison of Missouri – were the only House members to vote against the legislation on Monday.  

    Massie acknowledged that the TAKE IT DOWN Act ‘would impose federal criminal and civil penalties for publishing unauthorized intimate pictures generated with AI.’

    ‘I’m voting NO because I feel this is a slippery slope, ripe for abuse, with unintended consequences,’ Massie wrote on X. 

    House Republicans on Monday praised the first lady, Cruz and Salazar for leading the ‘crucial legislation’ to ‘create a safer digital future and protect our kids from deepfake exploitation.’ 

    ‘The passage of the TAKE IT DOWN Act is a historic win in the fight to protect victims of revenge porn and deepfake abuse,’ Cruz wrote on X. ‘This victory belongs first and foremost to the heroic survivors who shared their stories and the advocates who never gave up. By requiring social media companies to take down this abusive content quickly, we are sparing victims from repeated trauma and holding predators accountable.’

    ‘This day would not have been possible without the courage and perseverance of Elliston Berry, Francesca Mani, Breeze Liu, and Brandon Guffey, whose powerful voices drove this legislation forward,’ the senator wrote, adding that he was especially grateful to colleagues, including Melania Trump and Salazar, as well as Democrats Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, and Rep. Madeleine Dean of Pennsylvania, ‘for locking arms in this critical mission to protect Americans from online exploitation.’

    ‘Advancing this legislation has been a key focus since I returned to my role as First Lady this past January,’ Melania Trump wrote on X. ‘I am honored to have contributed to guiding it through Congress. By safeguarding children from hurtful online behavior today, we take a vital step in nurturing our leaders of tomorrow. #BeBest’ 

    During President Trump’s first term, the first lady established the BE BEST awareness campaign, which ‘focused on the well-being of children and highlighted the people and programs dedicated to ensuring a better future for the next generation,’ according to the White House. Melania Trump also established Fostering the Future, a BE BEST initiative, ‘which provides college-level scholarships to those aging out of the foster care system.’

    This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

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    On air, ’60 Minutes’ reporter says ‘none of us is happy’ about changes that led top producer to quit

    Business 2 Mins Read

    “60 Minutes” correspondent Scott Pelley paid tribute Sunday to Bill Owens, the show’s executive producer who resigned last week, saying on the air that “none of us is happy” about the extra supervision that corporate leaders are imposing.

    Pelley made his comments at the end of the evening’s CBS News telecast, saying that in quitting, Owens proved he was the right person for the job.

    “It was hard on him and it was hard on us,” Pelley said. “But he did it for us — and you.”

    His on-air statement was an unusual peek behind the scenes at the sort of inner turmoil that viewers seldom get the opportunity to see.

    Owens, only the third top executive in the 57-year history of television’s most influential newscast, resigned last week, saying he no longer felt he had the independence to run the program as he had in the past, and felt necessary.

    CBS News’ parent company, Paramount Global, is in the midst of a merger with Skydance Media that needs the approval of the Trump administration. Trump has sued “60 Minutes” for $20 billion, saying it unfairly edited a Kamala Harris interview last fall to her advantage. Owens and others at “60 Minutes” believe they did nothing wrong and have opposed a settlement.

    As a result, Pelley explained to viewers on Sunday, Paramount has begun to supervise “60 Minutes” stories in new ways. Former CBS News President Susan Zirinsky, a longtime news producer, has reportedly been asked to look at the show’s stories before they air.

    “None of our stories has been blocked,” Pelley said. “But Bill felt he lost the independence that honest journalism requires. No one here is happy about it. But in resigning, Bill proved he was the right person to lead ‘60 Minutes’ all along.”

    Despite this, “60 Minutes” has done tough stories about the Trump administration almost every week since the inauguration in January, many of them reported by Pelley. On Sunday, “60 Minutes” correspondent Sharyn Alfonsi had the latest, interviewing scientists about cutbacks at the National Institutes for Health.

    Trump was particularly angered by the show’s telecast two weeks ago, saying on social media that CBS News should “pay a big price” for going after him.

    This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

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    IBM pledges $150 billion to boost U.S. tech growth, computer manufacturing

    Business 2 Mins Read

    International Business Machines Corporation on Monday announced it will invest $150 billion in the U.S. over the next five years, including more than $30 billion to advance American manufacturing of its mainframe and quantum computers.

    “We have been focused on American jobs and manufacturing since our founding 114 years ago, and with this investment and manufacturing commitment we are ensuring that IBM remains the epicenter of the world’s most advanced computing and AI capabilities,” IBM CEO Arvind Krishna said in a release.   

    The company’s announcement comes weeks after President Donald Trump unveiled a far-reaching and aggressive “reciprocal” tariff policy to boost manufacturing in the U.S. As of late April, Trump has exempted chips, as well as smartphones, computers, and other tech devices and components, from the tariffs.

    IBM said its investment will help accelerate America’s role as a global leader in computing and fuel the economy. The company said it operates the “world’s largest fleet of quantum computer systems,” and will continue to build and assemble them in the U.S., according to the release.

    IBM competitor Nvidia, the chipmaker that has been the primary benefactor of the artificial intelligence boom, announced a similar push earlier this month to produce its NVIDIA AI supercomputers entirely in the U.S. 

    Nvidia plans to produce up to $500 billion of AI infrastructure in the U.S. via its manufacturing partnerships over the next four years.

    Last week, IBM reported better-than-expected first-quarter results. The company said it generated $14.54 billion in revenue for the period, above the $14.4 billion expected by analysts. IBM’s net income narrowed to $1.06 billion, or $1.12 per share, from $1.61 billion, or $1.72 per share, in the same quarter a year ago.

    IBM’s infrastructure division, which includes mainframe computers, posted $2.89 billion in revenue for the quarter, beating expectations of $2.76 billion.

    The company announced a new z17 AI mainframe earlier this month.

    CNBC’s Jordan Novet contributed to this report.

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