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Former Vice President Mike Pence was honored on Sunday night for his actions on Jan. 6, 2021, in defying his then-boss, President Donald Trump.

Pence received the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award for his refusal to honor Trump’s request to throw out the results of the 2020 presidential election, and instead oversaw congressional certification of former President Joe Biden’s Electoral College victory.

‘Vice President Pence put his life career and that of his family on the line to execute his constitutional responsibilities. His actions preserved the fundamental democratic principle of free and fair elections and we are proud to honor him,’ former ambassador Caroline Kennedy, the late President Kennedy’s daughter, said in presenting Pence with the award.

Pence, in accepting the annual award, emphasized that it’s a ‘distinction that I will cherish for the rest of my life.’

And the former vice president, pointing to his actions on Jan. 6, said to a standing ovation, ‘I will always believe by God’s grace that I did my duty that day.’

In a Fox News Digital interview minutes after the awards ceremony, Pence said, ‘in all my travels across the country in the last four years, I’ve been deeply humbled by how many Americans have come up to me and just taken a point to encourage us and support us, and it convinces me that the American people know that what ever differences we may have, the Constitution is the common ground on which we stand.’

The now-65-year-old Pence was Indiana’s governor when Trump named him his running mate in 2016. For four years, Pence served as the loyal vice president to Trump during the president’s first term in the White House.

However, everything changed on Jan. 6, 2021, as right-wing extremists — including some chanting ‘hang Mike Pence’ — stormed the U.S. Capitol aiming to upend congressional certification, overseen by Pence as part of his constitutional duties as vice president, of Biden’s Electoral College victory.

The attack on the Capitol took place soon after Trump spoke to a large rally of supporters near the White House about unproven claims that the 2020 election was ‘rigged’ due to massive ‘voter fraud.’

Pence has long described the violent attack on the Capitol as ‘tragic’ and dishonoring to ‘the millions of people who had supported our cause around the country.’ He has emphasized that he did ‘the right thing’ and performed his ‘duty under the Constitution.’ He has also noted a number of times that he and Trump may never ‘see eye to eye on that day.’

While Pence, his family and top aides were hastily moved by Secret Service agents as rioters roamed the halls of the Capitol, Trump argued in a social media post that ‘Mike Pence didn’t have the courage to do what should have been done to protect our Country and our Constitution, giving States a chance to certify a corrected set of facts, not the fraudulent or inaccurate ones which they were asked to previously certify.’

Pence rejected the advice of the Secret Service that he flee the Capitol, and after the rioters were eventually removed from the Capitol, he resumed his constitutional role in overseeing the congressional certification ceremony.

The former vice president has repeatedly refuted Trump’s claim that he could have overturned the presidential election results. Despite that, hardcore Trump loyalists have never forgiven Pence, whom they view as a traitor, for refusing to assist the president’s repeated efforts to overturn the 2020 election results.

Pence in June 2023 launched a presidential campaign of his own, joining a large field of challengers to Trump gunning for the 2024 GOP nomination, becoming the first running mate in over 80 years to run against their former boss.

Pence ran on a traditional conservative platform, framing the future of the Republican Party against what he called the rise of ‘populism’ in the party. 

Among the slim anti-Trump base of the Republican Party, Pence received praise for his courage during the attack on the Capitol, often receiving thanks at town halls during his campaign for standing up to Trump. 

While Pence regularly campaigned in the crucial early-voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, his White House bid never took off. Struggling in the polls and with fundraising, he suspended his campaign just four and a half months after declaring his candidacy.

The Profile in Courage Award is named for a book the late John F. Kennedy published in 1957 before he became president.

The award honors public officials who take principled stands despite the potential political or personal consequences. Among the previous recipients were former Presidents Barack Obama, George H.W. Bush and Gerald Ford.

Jack Schlossberg, JFK’s grandson, who introduced the former vice president at the awards ceremony, said Pence ‘saved America that day.’

Caroline Kennedy, in honoring the former vice president, noted her ‘political differences’ with Pence, but emphasized that ‘political courage is not outdated in the United States.’

And Pence, a well-known fiscal and social conservative, joked about speaking in front of an audience dominated by Democrats, saying that he was ‘the minority in this room.’

After dropping his own bid for the White House, Pence declined to endorse Trump, even after Trump clinched the GOP nomination last spring, though he did congratulate his former running mate after his victory last November.

Trump and Pence were seen shaking hands at former President Jimmy Carter’s funeral in early January – their first public appearance together in nearly four years.

Pence has emerged as a rare vocal Republican critic of Trump so far during the president’s second tour of duty in the White House.

He has critiqued Trump’s controversial and haphazard implementation of massive tariffs on America’s largest trading partners, which initially sparked a massive stock market sell-off, and raised concerns of increased inflation and talk of a recession.

He has also criticized the president’s upending of longstanding American foreign policy and has urged Trump to stand with longtime international allies.

Pence’s public advocacy group, Advancing American Freedom, also campaigned against the nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead the nation’s health agencies.

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Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., expressed her frustrations on a variety of political topics on Friday, stating in a post on X that she represents the Republican base and if she’s unhappy, the base is too.

The congresswoman suggested that the situation does not bode well for future elections, as President Donald Trump will not be on the ballot.

‘I represent the base and when I’m frustrated and upset over the direction of things, you better be clear, the base is not happy,’ Greene wrote. ‘When you are losing MTG, you are losing the base. And Trump isn’t on the ballot in the future, so do the math on that.’

Fox News Digital reached out to Greene’s office for a comment on her post, but did not receive a response by the time of publication.

‘I campaigned for no more foreign wars. And now we are supposedly on the verge of going to war with Iran. I don’t think we should be bombing foreign countries on behalf of other foreign countries especially when they have their own nuclear weapons and massive military strength,’ the lawmaker wrote.

She has expressed staunch opposition to the minerals deal the Trump administration struck with Ukraine last week. 

The White House indicated that the ‘partnership between the United States and Ukraine establishes a fund that will receive 50% of royalties, license fees, and other similar payments from natural resource projects in Ukraine.’

Ukrainian official Yulia Svyrydenko noted, ‘the Fund will be financed exclusively from NEW licenses,’ and the U.S. ‘will contribute to the Fund. In addition to direct financial contributions, it may also provide NEW assistance — for example, air defense systems for Ukraine.’

Greene asked in her post, ‘Why on earth would we go over and occupy Ukraine and spend an untold amount of future American taxpayer dollars defending and mining their minerals as well as potentially putting American lives at risk and future war? Why don’t we just mine our own rare earth minerals that are tied up on federal lands that the government confiscated years ago?’

Another issue Greene expressed frustration with is the coronavirus pandemic, specifically the COVID-19 vaccines.

‘I also campaigned on accountability for the communist and tyrannical acts made by the government during Covid. Yet the Covid vaccine still has FDA approval even though there are millions reported injuries and deaths, and this mRNA vaccine is known to have horrific side effects and DOES NOT STOP PEOPLE FROM CATCHING COVID. And to this day, it’s still on the childhood vaccine schedule, why on earth is this happening?’ she asked.

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Chinese bargain retailer Temu changed its business model in the U.S. as the Trump administration’s new rules on low-value shipments took effect Friday.

In recent days, Temu has abruptly shifted its website and app to only display listings for products shipped from U.S.-based warehouses. Items shipped directly from China, which previously blanketed the site, are now labeled as out of stock.

Temu made a name for itself in the U.S. as a destination for ultra-discounted items shipped direct from China, such as $5 sneakers and $1.50 garlic presses. It’s been able to keep prices low because of the so-called de minimis rule, which has allowed items worth $800 or less to enter the country duty-free since 2016.

The loophole expired Friday at 12:01 a.m. EDT as a result of an executive order signed by President Donald Trump in April. Trump briefly suspended the de minimis rule in February before reinstating the provision days later as customs officials struggled to process and collect tariffs on a mountain of low-value packages.

The end of de minimis, as well as Trump’s new 145% tariffs on China, has forced Temu to raise prices, suspend its aggressive online advertising push and now alter the selection of goods available to American shoppers to circumvent higher levies.

A Temu spokesperson confirmed to CNBC that all sales in the U.S. are now handled by local sellers and said they are fulfilled “from within the country.” Temu said pricing for U.S. shoppers “remains unchanged.”

“Temu has been actively recruiting U.S. sellers to join the platform,” the spokesperson said. “The move is designed to help local merchants reach more customers and grow their businesses.”

Before the change, shoppers who attempted to purchase Temu products shipped from China were confronted with “import charges” of between 130% and 150%. The fees often cost more than the individual item and more than doubled the price of many orders.

Temu advertises that local products have “no import charges” and “no extra charges upon delivery.”

The company, which is owned by Chinese e-commerce giant PDD Holdings, has gradually built up its inventory in the U.S. over the past year in anticipation of escalating trade tensions and the removal of de minimis.

Shein, which has also benefited from the loophole, moved to raise prices last week. The fast-fashion retailer added a banner at checkout that says, “Tariffs are included in the price you pay. You’ll never have to pay extra at delivery.”

Many third-party sellers on Amazon rely on Chinese manufacturers to source or assemble their products. The company’s Temu competitor, called Amazon Haul, has relied on de minimis to ship products priced at $20 or less directly from China to the U.S.

Amazon said Tuesday following a dustup with the White House that had it considered showing tariff-related costs on Haul products ahead of the de minimis cutoff but that it has since scrapped those plans.

Prior to Trump’s second term in office, the Biden administration had also looked to curtail the provision. Critics of the de minimis provision argue that it harms American businesses and that it facilitates shipments of fentanyl and other illicit substances because, they say, the packages are less likely to be inspected by customs agents.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

The market does not always follow the same script or sequence, but bear markets typically end with a bottoming process marked by specific stages. These include capitulation, a short-term reversal-thrust, a follow-through thrust and long-term regime change. The first two stages mark downside excess and the initial turn around, while the latter two signal strong follow through. Today’s report will look at the first two phases, and preview the last two.

Phase 1: Capitulation

The capitulation phase of a bear market occurs when traders throw in the towel as downside momentum and selling pressure accelerate. Usually, the capitulation phase occurs after an extended decline, and this phase is the first step to a bottom. The chart below shows SPY with Bollinger Bands (200,3), %B (200,3) and S&P 500 Percent Above 200-day SMA ($SPXA200R). Signs of capitulation emerge when %B is below 0 and/or fewer than 20% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day SMAs. The blue dashed lines show capitulation in June 2022, September 2022 and early April 2025. Note that we initially covered this capitulation phase in a report on April 8th.

Phase 2: Short-term Thrust Signals (ZBT)

Phase 2 is marked by a sharp-reversal from oversold extremes and an upside thrust. The Zweig Breadth Thrust is perhaps the most famous thrust indicator these days. We covered the ZBT extensively over the last few weeks and introduced a strategy using this indicator. The chart below shows the S&P 1500 ZBT indicator in the lower window (10-day EMA of S&P 1500 AD%). A thrust signal triggered on April 24th and stocks followed through with further gains.  

Two Down and Two to Go

The capitulation phase showed excessive selling pressure and the thrust phase marked a short-term reversal. These are bullish events, but the market cup is not yet half full. SPY remains below its 200-day SMA and the late March high (see chart above). Medium-term thrust indicators have yet to trigger and long-term breadth remains bearish. The 14% surge over the last 17 days is impressive, but keep in mind that SPY surged 10% in nine days in March 2022, which was a bear market bounce.

TrendInvestorPro produced a report this week covering the four phases – and what to watch going forward. Click here to take a trial and get immediate access.

  • Phase 1: Capitulation
  • Phase 2: Short-term Thrust Signals
  • Phase 3: Medium-term Thrust Signals
  • Capitulation and Thrust Indexes
  • Phase 4: Long-term Indicators turn Bullish
  • Short-term Improvements, but Longer Term 

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Gold trended down this week, dropping to just over US$3,200 per ounce on the first day of May.

While the yellow metal remains historically high after a strong run this year, its price has pulled back from last week’s record-setting level of US$3,500, causing concern for some market participants.

However, many experts agree that this week’s retreat isn’t a reason to worry.

His technical analysis shows that the US$3,100 to US$3,140 area will be important to watch moving forward — in his view, that’s when bullish players should start re-entering the space, boosting the price.

Soloway also outlined gold’s future price potential, saying he sees a potential path to US$7,000. Check out the full interview for more of his thoughts on gold, as well as silver and the US economy.

Bullet briefing — Fed to meet next week, US-Ukraine deal signed

Market watchers eye Fed meeting

Eyes are shifting to the US Federal Reserve’s next meeting, set to run from May 6 to 7. It follows initial numbers showing that real GDP contracted by an annual rate of 0.3 percent in Q1.

That’s the first negative reading since 2022, and as the news weighed on the stock market, US President Donald Trump took to social media to suggest the data is an ‘overhang’ from Joe Biden’s term.

Trump has pressured Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates sooner than later, but CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows the vast majority of market participants expect rates to stay flat.

Trump advisor Elon Musk also has his eye on the Fed. Speaking to reporters on Wednesday (April 30), he said the US$2.5 billion renovation of the central bank’s headquarters could become a point of inquiry for the Department of Government Efficiency, better known as DOGE.

Calling the cost an ‘eyebrow raiser,’ Musk questioned where the money is being spent. The price of the project was initially set at US$1.9 billion in 2021, but has increased since then.

‘Since at the end of the day, this is all taxpayer money, I think we certainly — we should definitely — look to see if indeed the Federal Reserve is spending $2.5 billion on their interior designer’ — Musk

US, Ukraine sign critical minerals deal

The US and Ukraine signed a much-anticipated minerals deal on Wednesday, ending months of often-tense negotiations between the two countries. If approved by parliament in Ukraine, the agreement will set up a reconstruction investment fund that will be split 50/50 between each party.

According to Ukrainian officials, the deal is more equitable than previous versions.

The fund will be financed only by new licenses for critical materials, oil and gas; aside from that, Ukraine will not have to pay back wartime aid provided by the US.

While Ukraine had pushed for security guarantees from the US, that component ultimately wasn’t put in place. However, the US may provide new assistance to Ukraine, such as air defense systems.

A total of 55 minerals are reportedly covered in the arrangement, but more can be added in the future if there is consensus between the US and Ukraine. Although the US will get preferential rights to mineral extraction, Ukraine will have the final say on what is mined and where, and will retain subsoil ownership.

The agreement comes on the back of an increasing global focus on critical minerals, many of which are key for new technology and important industries like defense.

It’s worth noting that while Ukraine is home to a wide variety of these commodities, more geological data will be needed to determine commercial viability — for example, there is no up-to-date information on the country’s reserves of rare earths, which are important to the US.

Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

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George Orwell famously said, ‘If liberty means anything at all, it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear.’ On World Press Freedom Day, we must remind ourselves of the people who have lost their freedoms fighting for this very right. 

My father Jimmy Lai is one such man. He is currently in Stanley maximum security prison in Hong Kong, facing potential life in prison for simply publishing what Chinese authorities do not want to hear. 

His story is one of extraordinary transformation and unwavering conviction. Arriving in Hong Kong at age 12 after fleeing Communist China, he began his journey as a child laborer in a clothing factory, enduring hardship and poverty. 

Yet, through grit and vision, he rose from factory worker to factory manager, and by 1975, used his savings to purchase a bankrupt garment factory. This bold move laid the foundation for his first major success: Giordano, a clothing chain that grew into an international brand with thousands of employees and stores across Asia.

The 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre marked a turning point for him. Witnessing the brutal suppression of pro-democracy protesters, he redirected his life’s work from business to activism, determined to fight for freedom and human rights in Hong Kong. 

In 1995, he founded Apple Daily, a newspaper that quickly became a beacon for free speech and democracy, unafraid to criticize the Chinese Communist Party and expose corruption. My father poured $100 million of his own fortune into the venture, ensuring the paper’s independence and fearless reporting.

His media empire, including Next Magazine and Apple Daily, became a megaphone for Hong Kong’s pro-democracy movement, rallying citizens and challenging the authorities. His outspoken criticism of Beijing and unwavering support for protestors made him a target. 

The CCP labeled him a ‘troublemaker,’ and his businesses faced retaliation, including the closure of his Beijing Giordano store after a controversial column. Yet, he never wavered, famously stating, ‘Information is choice and choice is freedom’ using both high-brow and popular content to spread the message of liberty.

His commitment to principle set him apart from other tycoons. While many business leaders in Hong Kong chose silence or compromise, he stood alone, enduring threats, arrests, and ultimately imprisonment for his beliefs. In 2014, he was arrested during the pro-democracy Umbrella Movement protests, and in 2020, as Beijing tightened its grip on Hong Kong, my father was again detained under the draconian National Security Law. 

Despite the risks, he refused to flee, choosing to remain in Hong Kong and continue the stand for his beliefs, even as Apple Daily was forced to close, even as he now faces the possibility of the rest of his life behind bars.

My father’s life is a testament to the power of conviction. He is not just a businessman or media mogul – he is a symbol of freedom and hope for many. His outsider status, as an immigrant who never quite fit in, gave him the strength to play by his own rules and challenge the status quo.

Despite his wealth and influence, he remains deeply human – a husband, father and practicing Catholic. We miss his booming voice and boisterous laughter around our dinner table. We long for the day we can again share a meal, again pray together.

Over the past few months, both President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have publicly stated their commitment to securing my father’s freedom, consistent with the president’s prioritizing the release of those wrongly detained abroad. He has secured the release of 14 prisoners since taking office in January.

My father is fortunate to have deep bipartisan support in this country and abroad. The U.S. and the U.K. have called for his immediate and unconditional release, as have the parliaments of Canada and the EU. He has received numerous awards for his courage, and I will receive a Bradley Prize on his behalf on May 29 in Washington. But he remains in prison.

My father is one of 10 journalists who are still being held in Hong Kong’s prisons, some of whom worked for him at Apple Daily. While he may be the most high-profile among them, all of these journalists were fighting for their right to speak truth to power, and to defend their way of life.

Their bravery reminds us that freedom is never guaranteed – it must be fought for, often at great personal cost. My father’s defiance in the face of overwhelming power, his willingness to sacrifice everything for his principles, and his belief in the dignity of every individual make him a genuine hero of our time. 

At 77 years old, he has spent the last four years in a maximum-security prison for these beliefs. His legacy endures as a beacon of hope, showing that just one person’s courage can change the course of history. 

The end to my father’s story is not yet written. This World Press Freedom Day, I appeal to all who cherish free speech to join our fight to secure my father’s release so he can leave Hong Kong and spend his old age with his family.

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A small English town north of bustling Manchester just saw two controversial pro-Gaza candidates flip seats held by the mainstream Labour Party. Both candidates ran as independents in the May 1 local elections.

Maheen Kamran, 18, won the Burnley Central East seat on the Lancashire County Council, while Azhar Ali won the position of county councillor for the Nelson East ward. The Telegraph noted that their victories could be part of a growing trend, following a slew of pro-Gaza candidates—including former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn—winning seats in last year’s general election.

Ali is a former Labour Party member who was suspended from the party and lost its backing over allegations of antisemitism during an election last year. Labour initially supported Ali after he claimed that Israel ‘allowed’ Hamas’ Oct. 7 massacre to occur as a pretext to invade Gaza, according to the BBC. He later apologized for making what he called a ‘deeply offensive, ignorant and false’ claim. Labour withdrew its support for Ali and later suspended him from the party.

The Board of Deputies of British Jews did not accept Ali’s apology, calling his comments ‘disgraceful and unforgivable.’

‘It is clear to us that Mr. Ali is not [apologizing] out of a genuine sense of remorse. Despite what he says in his apology, we do not see how we could possibly engage with him at this time, and we believe other leading Jewish communal groups will feel similarly,’ the organization wrote in a 2024 statement.

Meanwhile, Kamran has taken radical stances of her own. She voted in favor of ending the ‘free mixing’ of Muslim men and women in public spaces. 

‘Muslim women aren’t really comfortable with being involved with Muslim men. I’m sure we can have segregated areas, segregated gyms, where Muslim women don’t have to sacrifice their health,’ Kamran told PoliticsHome.

In the same interview, Kamran said she entered politics because she believes there is a ‘genocide’ taking place in Gaza. While critics of Israel’s military actions use the term ‘genocide,’ supporters of the Jewish state often argue that Israel has the capability to destroy Gaza’s population but has chosen not to, thereby disputing the genocide claim.

Ali and Kamran’s victories come as mainstream parties lose influence in local elections. The right-wing populist Reform UK Party saw major gains in the latest election, according to the Telegraph. Meanwhile, despite its control of 10 Downing Street, Labour suffered losses in the recent local elections. 

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Vice President JD Vance, Second Lady Usha Vance and their young children are adjusting well to life as the Second Family, with the vice president telling Fox News Digital that they are trying to ‘deliver as much normalcy to the kids in a very abnormal situation.’ 

Vance sat down for an exclusive interview with Fox News Digital this week. 

‘Everyone is adjusting well—they are doing very well,’ Vance said. ‘It’s different, right?’ 

‘My seven-year-old son Ewan, he’s adjusting, but he’s also aware of all of it,’ Vance said. 

‘And then we have our five-year-old son, Vivek, who I think is a little bit less aware of it,’ Vance continued. ‘To him, it’s just fun. He has a bunch of Secret Service agents to play with, and he gets to go wherever he wants to, and he really likes that.’ 

‘And Mirabel, who’s three, has no idea what’s going on,’ Vance said of his youngest. 

Vance shared a photo of Mirabel, which he and his wife display in their home in the Naval Observatory, ‘in her pajamas reviewing this Indian troop formation.’ 

‘It’s so funny—it’s maybe my favorite photo of the entire 100 days that we’ve had so far—it’s very cute,’ Vance said. ‘So, you sort of see different levels of kids’ understanding of it.’ 

Vance said the children ‘have a good school situation.’ 

‘We have good friends here, and they spend a lot of time at the White House,’ Vance said. 

‘Of course, our primary residence—we still have our home in Cincinnati—but our primary residence is the Naval Observatory,’ Vance said. ‘It’s very isolated, so it’s nice, because, for the kids, it’s not like growing up in a fishbowl.’ 

Vance said the children ‘have a lot of room to run around.’ 

‘There aren’t cameras everywhere, and it feels very, very private—very normal for the kids—which is all we could ask for,’ Vance said. 

As for his wife, Vance said ‘each second lady approaches the role differently—there’s not like, a manual that says—this is how you will be second lady.’ 

‘I think what Usha has done is she has focused on some issues she cares about and she is very involved in the Kennedy Center—she really likes the arts and that is a project that she’s taken on,’ Vance explained, adding that she plans to ‘take on additional projects.’ 

‘But she also is a mom,’ Vance said. ‘And the kids are really young, and she saw this as an opportunity to try to deliver as much normalcy to the kids in a very abnormal situation.’ 

He added: ‘But she’s doing well, and she really likes it—I think the role suits her and she’s having fun. She’s amazing.’ 

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I feel like the short-term risk is turning once again and I’ll explain why in my analysis below. Please don’t misunderstand. I suggested a bottom was in place a few weeks ago and I LOVE what has been happening in terms of manipulation/accumulation and I LOVE the fact that we were able to quickly regain both the 20-day EMA and 50-day SMA on our major indices.

However, here are the four major indices and where they’re at currently on their respective charts and their next key overhead resistance levels:

Dow Jones

We did manage to close just above the 50-day SMA here, but the Dow Jones still appears vulnerable to me. Given the fact that the S&P 500 has room to run up to what is now major price resistance at 5782, I could see the Dow Jones moving a bit higher to challenge the late-March high at approximately 42750. That could serve as a neckline.

S&P 500

20-day EMA resistance? No problem, went right through. Gap resistance 5500? Ditto. 50-day SMA resistance. Ditto. This rally has been impressive. Key levels of price resistance have failed and this tells me that we’re not going to violate the low at 4835. It’s set in stone, in my opinion. There are still a couple of key resistance levels on the S&P 500 that we’ll have to deal with next week. The first will be the early-April rebound attempt that failed near 5700. Today’s intraday high was 5700. The next one, however, will be the biggest on the chart and that’s where we last failed in late March – at 5782.

NASDAQ 100:

Looks similar to the S&P 500, but I did add the RSI to this chart. During downtrends, RSI 60 tends to be rather big resistance. We see many rallies fail at or near that level. The NDX just crossed RSI 60….barely. At our Friday intraday high, the NASDAQ 100 pulled within 100 points (less than 0.5%) of the late-March high near 20250. I don’t know if we turn here or not, but I do know the risks are elevated.

Russell 2000:

The 197 level offered great price support on multiple occasions, so when we see a heavy-volume breakdown like we saw in early April, we should recognize how important it is to clear that same price resistance on the way back up. We did so on Friday with gusto. I absolutely LOVE the sudden accumulation that’s taken place in the IWM. I believe that will result in a much larger move at some point later this year. But are we due for another round of selling first, perhaps at upcoming price resistance levels marked above? We’ll soon find out.

Be careful ahead, especially if a rising-volume, reversing candle prints on our major indices sometime next week.

Sentiment

Check out this 5-day SMA of the equity only put call ratio ($CPCE):

We just hit 0.55, showing the most complacency we’ve seen in the past 5 weeks or so. Extreme low readings have previously marked corrections and/or cyclical bear markets and that was one key topping indicator that I discussed back in January/February. Other prior moves down to 0.55 have also resulted in short-term tops. I thought the current .55 reading was worth pointing out for this reason.

Seasonality could also play a role. Early May (through the 5th) tends to provide historical tailwinds, but the middle part of May (6th through 25th) has a history of being rather challenging. The 5th is Monday, so given everything I’ve discussed above and knowing that our bullish seasonal window could soon be closing, watch for a potential reversing candle as a sign to think about reducing risk (covered calls, S&P 500 puts for insurance, moving to cash, etc.).

I’m not ready to definitively call a short-term top here, but I do want to point out that the SHORT-TERM risks of being long right now are growing. Do with that what you may.

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Happy trading!

Tom

We just wrapped up a busy week jam-packed with key economic data and big tech earnings. And we have some positive news: the market held up pretty well. May is off to a good start.

Strong earnings from META Platforms (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) gave the stock market a boost. Together, their strong performance helped the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) break above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA).

On Friday, the rally got an extra shot in the arm from a better-than-expected jobs report—177,000 jobs added vs. 135,000 expected. That helped fuel a market-wide rally, with all the major indexes ending the week in positive territory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) closed up 1.46%, the S&P 500 ($SPX) up 1.42%, and the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) up 1.41%.

A quick glance at the Equities panel (US Indexes tab) in the Market Summary page shows that the S&P 500, Dow Industrials, Russell 1000, and the Wilshire 5000 had nine consecutive up days. This is quite the reversal after trade war outcomes spooked investors. The weekly streak isn’t too shabby either, with many indexes displaying four consecutive up streaks. More indexes are now trading above their 50-day moving averages compared to a few days ago.

What Does This Mean Going Forward?

After a negative statistic in the Q1 GDP growth, the strong jobs report put recessionary fears in the rearview mirror. However, this also lowers the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the May FOMC meeting. And looking at the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut in June has dropped to 36.4%, so it may be July before we see a rate cut. But this scenario could change between now and June.

Does this week’s price action mean the equity market is reversing? One thing is clear: The situation is much more positive than it was three weeks ago. But to get an objective view, it’s best to focus on the charts.

The Technical PoV

The daily chart of $SPX below shows that Friday’s close basically wipes out the “post Liberation Day” losses. Essentially, all the volatile action that took place in the last month was an emotional reaction to the uncertainty that investors were battling against. It was an emotional roller coaster. Now that the S&P 500 is back to the high of April 2, does it mean things have returned to business as usual?

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF S&P 500. The index closed at around the same level it did on Liberation Day. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Seasonally, May is a good month in the stock market, as are June and July. You can see this in the seasonality chart of the S&P 500. The data supports some of the price action we’re seeing, especially among sectors and industry groups.

Sector Snapshot

All 11 S&P sectors closed in the green on Friday. For the week, Industrials, Technology, and Financials were the leading sectors. It’s interesting to note that Friday’s leading sector, Financials, is showing signs of recovery after the April fall. The daily chart of the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) shows the ETF trading above its 50- and 200-day SMAs. Its relative strength index (RSI) is also rising.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF XLF. The ETF broke above its 50-day moving average and its relative strength is also rising. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Of the three, the Technology sector is technically the weakest. It’s trading below its 200-day SMA, and its 50-day SMA is below its 200-day SMA. To see strength return to the broader market, the Technology sector needs show technical strength.

The Nasdaq Composite Bullish Percent Index ($BPCOMP) is at 46.52. It showed a reversal from a level just above 20 and crossed above 30, indicating a bull alert. A cross above 50 would be a favorable bull signal.

FIGURE 3. NASDAQ COMPOSITE BULLISH PERCENT INDEX. After a sharp reversal from above 20, $BPCOMPQ crossed above the 30 level and is approaching the 50 level. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Keep an eye on this chart, since a break above 50 could be an early signal of improving breadth in the Nasdaq Composite.

At the Close

While the stock market’s price action seems to have regained some of its momentum, there needs to be more confirmation to suggest a trend reversal. Keep an eye on the charts of the broader indexes, sectors, and the BPIs. Look for technical indicators to confirm the rally’s strength and keep an eye on interest rate expectations.


End-of-Week Wrap-Up

  • S&P 500 up 2.92% on the week, at 5686.67, Dow Jones Industrial Average up 3.0% on the week at 41,317.43; Nasdaq Composite up 3.42% on the week at 17,977.73.
  • $VIX down 8.86% on the week, closing at 22.64.
  • Best performing sector for the week: Industrials
  • Worst performing sector for the week: Energy
  • Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Palantir Technologies, Inc. (PLTR); Duolingo Inc. (DUOL); Summit Therapeutics PLC (SMMT); MicroStrategy (MSTR); Roblox Corp (RBLX)

On the Radar Next Week

  • Earnings season continues with Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B), Palantir Technologies (PLTR), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM), Novo Nordisk (NOVO-B.CO), Ford (F), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and several others reporting.
  • ISM Services PMI
  • Fed Interest Rate Decision/Press Conference
  • Fed speeches from Kugler, Goolsbee, Waller, Williams, and others on Friday

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.